Hungary leading at halftime?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$11.73

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,497

Combined PnL+$92.8

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0.15

Total Shares300

Combined PnL-$81.07

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 68¢	$396.45	$425.6	+$29.15	53% 1376-1196 (2572)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 71.8¢	$221.22	$227.92	+$6.7	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 68¢	$189.51	$203.44	+$13.93	48% 293-321 (614)
PV pvc975	Noavg 99.9¢	$200.11	$200.21	+$0.1	98% 349-6 (355)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 73¢	$104.99	$136.93	+$31.93	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 69¢	$31.74	$33.58	+$1.84	55% 474-384 (858)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 69¢	$134.17	$24.31	+$9.14	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$80	$0.14	-$79.86	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.84	$0	-$0.84	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.38	$0	-$0.38	45% 814-997 (1811)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$396.45

Value

$425.6

PnL

+$29.15

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

Flaznorp

Invested

$221.22

Value

$227.92

PnL

+$6.7

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$189.51

Value

$203.44

PnL

+$13.93

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

pvc975

Invested

$200.11

Value

$200.21

PnL

+$0.1

Record

98%

349-6 (355)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$104.99

Value

$136.93

PnL

+$31.93

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$31.74

Value

$33.58

PnL

+$1.84

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

38791873984189

Invested

$134.17

Value

$24.31

PnL

+$9.14

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$79.86

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.84

Value

PnL

-$0.84

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.38

Value

PnL

-$0.38

Record

45%

814-997 (1811)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.