Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 1 Hungary?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$466.81

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 100¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$939.2

Total Shares1,784

Combined PnL+$405.97

No9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,675

Combined PnL+$60.83

Yes — 31%No — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 28¢	$464.71	$764.79	+$300.09	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97¢	$660.65	$660.65	+$0	37% 985-1642 (2627)
GC GC-P	Noavg 87¢	$307.5	$340.19	+$32.69	37% 364-613 (977)
NM NM-P	Noavg 87¢	$304.5	$339.5	+$35	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 13.2¢	$161.42	$120.12	+$96.39	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
VE Venusian	Noavg 93.7¢	$110.69	$93.33	-$17.36	37% 968-1674 (2642)
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 96¢	$60	$60.63	+$0.63	78% 791-220 (1011)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 94.3¢	$56.89	$60.29	+$3.4	40% 139-209 (348)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.3¢	$28.61	$50.79	+$22.18	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Noavg 99¢	$35.09	$35.26	+$0.18	99% 468-7 (475)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 71¢	$8.03	$16.11	+$8.07	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88¢	$11.6	$7.93	-$1.77	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.9¢	$16.18	$3.5	-$12.68	46% 2702-3200 (5902)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$464.71

Value

$764.79

PnL

+$300.09

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

MadridTime

Invested

$660.65

Value

$660.65

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

GC-P

Invested

$307.5

Value

$340.19

PnL

+$32.69

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

NM-P

Invested

$304.5

Value

$339.5

PnL

+$35

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$161.42

Value

$120.12

PnL

+$96.39

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Venusian

Invested

$110.69

Value

$93.33

PnL

-$17.36

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$60

Value

$60.63

PnL

+$0.63

Record

78%

791-220 (1011)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$56.89

Value

$60.29

PnL

+$3.4

Record

40%

139-209 (348)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.61

Value

$50.79

PnL

+$22.18

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Invested

$35.09

Value

$35.26

PnL

+$0.18

Record

99%

468-7 (475)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$8.03

Value

$16.11

PnL

+$8.07

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$11.6

Value

$7.93

PnL

-$1.77

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.18

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$12.68

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.