Exact Score: Georgia 0 - 0 Hungary?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (36%) · No at 100¢ · $526 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 36%

Total Value

$526.49

Combined PnL

$64.1

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$331.86

Total Shares407

Combined PnL-$34.35

Yes7 traders

Total Value$194.63

Total Shares802

Combined PnL+$98.44

No — 36%Yes — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 88.5¢	$181.56	$147.66	-$33.9	37% 364-613 (977)
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 93¢	$120.27	$129.26	+$8.99	40% 139-209 (348)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 11¢	$35.05	$73.32	+$38.27	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 89¢	$50.99	$41.25	-$9.74	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$22.06	$41.17	+$19.12	37% 977-1669 (2646)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 12.6¢	$103.21	$27.87	+$20.27	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$14.73	$22.77	+$8.04	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 12.4¢	$9.49	$21.35	+$11.86	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 87¢	$13.39	$13.7	+$0.31	55% 474-384 (858)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$4.76	$5.95	+$1.19	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$2.5	$2.19	-$0.31	37% 985-1642 (2627)

GC-P

Invested

$181.56

Value

$147.66

PnL

-$33.9

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

WagerWizard

Invested

$120.27

Value

$129.26

PnL

+$8.99

Record

40%

139-209 (348)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.05

Value

$73.32

PnL

+$38.27

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$50.99

Value

$41.25

PnL

-$9.74

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.06

Value

$41.17

PnL

+$19.12

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$103.21

Value

$27.87

PnL

+$20.27

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.73

Value

$22.77

PnL

+$8.04

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.49

Value

$21.35

PnL

+$11.86

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$13.39

Value

$13.7

PnL

+$0.31

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$5.95

PnL

+$1.19

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.19

PnL

-$0.31

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.