Will Türkiye win on 2026-11-15?
4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 93¢ · $717 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 40%
$717
$1.31
92.8¢ → 92.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 93¢ | $329.19 | $327.42 | -$1.77 | 37% 1043-1777 (2820) |
DV dv-pm | Noavg 94¢ | $191.76 | $188.7 | -$3.06 | 46% 36-43 (79) |
GU guilttrip | Noavg 89¢ | $108.58 | $83.25 | -$4 | 44% 22-28 (50) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $58.38 | $58.38 | -$0 | 49% 4087-4288 (8375) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $22.91 | $32.95 | +$10.04 | 33% 106-214 (320) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $18.97 | $18.87 | -$0.1 | 37% 1048-1799 (2847) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $2.83 | $3.03 | +$0.2 | 42% 1054-1470 (2524) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $2.95 | $2.95 | +$0 | 53% 1867-1658 (3525) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.79 | $0.79 | -$0 | 59% 3805-2621 (6426) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $0.67 | $0.67 | +$0 | 48% 3305-3631 (6936) |
Invested
$329.19
Value
$327.42
PnL
-$1.77
Record
37%
1043-1777 (2820)
Invested
$191.76
Value
$188.7
PnL
-$3.06
Record
46%
36-43 (79)
Invested
$108.58
Value
$83.25
PnL
-$4
Record
44%
22-28 (50)
Invested
$58.38
Value
$58.38
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
4087-4288 (8375)
Invested
$22.91
Value
$32.95
PnL
+$10.04
Record
33%
106-214 (320)
Invested
$18.97
Value
$18.87
PnL
-$0.1
Record
37%
1048-1799 (2847)
Invested
$2.83
Value
$3.03
PnL
+$0.2
Record
42%
1054-1470 (2524)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$2.95
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1867-1658 (3525)
Invested
$0.79
Value
$0.79
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
3805-2621 (6426)
Invested
$0.67
Value
$0.67
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
3305-3631 (6936)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.