France vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Over98¢Under2¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$6.1

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 98¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over98%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,949

Combined PnL+$10.3

Under4 traders

Total Value$20.87

Total Shares1,491

Combined PnL-$4.2

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 97.5¢	$549.44	$552.54	+$3.1	52% 2556-2350 (4906)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Overavg 98.5¢	$500	$500.5	+$0.51	38% 3857-6319 (10176)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Overavg 98.1¢	$337.45	$339.17	+$1.72	48% 495-537 (1032)
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 98¢	$293.96	$294.6	+$0.64	58% 115-85 (200)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 97.4¢	$587.91	$161.97	+$4	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Overavg 97.7¢	$47.88	$48.13	+$0.25	51% 203-192 (395)
WarewaPain<$100	Overavg 98.2¢	$23.56	$23.65	+$0.1	0% 1-213 (214)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 1.6¢	$17.13	$14.99	-$2.14	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 1.9¢	$6.45	$4.66	-$1.8	35% 659-1202 (1861)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 1.7¢	$1.21	$1	-$0.21	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 1.7¢	$0.28	$0.23	-$0.05	41% 1200-1727 (2927)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$549.44

Value

$552.54

PnL

+$3.1

Record

52%

2556-2350 (4906)

xtxpleasecallme

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$500.5

PnL

+$0.51

Record

38%

3857-6319 (10176)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Over

Invested

$337.45

Value

$339.17

PnL

+$1.72

Record

48%

495-537 (1032)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$293.96

Value

$294.6

PnL

+$0.64

Record

58%

115-85 (200)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$587.91

Value

$161.97

PnL

+$4

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Over

Invested

$47.88

Value

$48.13

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

203-192 (395)

WarewaPain<$100

Over

Invested

$23.56

Value

$23.65

PnL

+$0.1

Record

1-213 (214)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.13

Value

$14.99

PnL

-$2.14

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.45

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$1.8

Record

35%

659-1202 (1861)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.21

Value

PnL

-$0.21

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

1200-1727 (2927)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+26 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.