Will France win on 2026-11-15?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 80¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Yes80¢No20¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$23.4

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 79.5¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,414

Combined PnL-$53.87

No7 traders

Total Value$414.77

Total Shares2,072

Combined PnL+$77.28

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Yesavg 83.5¢	$558.88	$532.25	-$26.63	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 83.5¢	$468.68	$446.03	-$22.65	33% 251-499 (750)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 16.5¢	$237.67	$288.54	+$50.87	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
OD Oddstorm	Yesavg 82.9¢	$133.46	$129.12	-$4.34	30% 77-180 (257)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$54.33	$72.44	+$18.11	14% 18-112 (130)
38 38791873984189<$100	Yesavg 80¢	$39.9	$39.65	-$0.25	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100	Noavg 15¢	$15.93	$21.24	+$5.31	20% 18-71 (89)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 19.3¢	$17.11	$18.21	+$1.09	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$11.06	$13.01	+$1.95	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 24.5¢	$1.07	$0.87	-$0.2	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$0.33	$0.47	+$0.14	53% 6646-5820 (12466)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$558.88

Value

$532.25

PnL

-$26.63

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$468.68

Value

$446.03

PnL

-$22.65

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$237.67

Value

$288.54

PnL

+$50.87

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

Oddstorm

Yes

Invested

$133.46

Value

$129.12

PnL

-$4.34

Record

30%

77-180 (257)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Invested

$54.33

Value

$72.44

PnL

+$18.11

Record

14%

18-112 (130)

38791873984189<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.9

Value

$39.65

PnL

-$0.25

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

TimeTravelerCTR<$100

Invested

$15.93

Value

$21.24

PnL

+$5.31

Record

20%

18-71 (89)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$17.11

Value

$18.21

PnL

+$1.09

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$11.06

Value

$13.01

PnL

+$1.95

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.07

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$0.2

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.47

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.