Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Türkiye?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 98¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$8.6K
$0.72
96.7¢ → 98¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $5.8K | $5.9K | +$80.14 | 54% 6095-5185 (11280) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$5.75 | 46% 1234-1428 (2662) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $558.8 | $317.73 | -$4.41 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
LI Limousin | Noavg 96.3¢ | $299.99 | $301.24 | +$1.25 | 38% 1401-2279 (3680) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $262.42 | $184.68 | -$77.73 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $98.3 | $95.81 | -$2.49 | 38% 1416-2272 (3688) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $49.96 | $49.8 | -$0.15 | 38% 3874-6342 (10216) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $27.03 | $33 | +$5.97 | 20% 30-119 (149) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $30.25 | $30.22 | -$0.03 | 35% 669-1223 (1892) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $4.04 | $10 | +$5.96 | 41% 1218-1750 (2968) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $7.98 | $5.94 | -$2.03 | 48% 2643-2871 (5514) |
RN1Invested
$5,784.97
Value
$5.9K
PnL
+$80.14
Record
54%
6095-5185 (11280)
Invested
$1,723.59
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$5.75
Record
46%
1234-1428 (2662)
Invested
$558.8
Value
$317.73
PnL
-$4.41
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
Invested
$299.99
Value
$301.24
PnL
+$1.25
Record
38%
1401-2279 (3680)
Invested
$262.42
Value
$184.68
PnL
-$77.73
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
Invested
$98.3
Value
$95.81
PnL
-$2.49
Record
38%
1416-2272 (3688)
Invested
$49.96
Value
$49.8
PnL
-$0.15
Record
38%
3874-6342 (10216)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$33
PnL
+$5.97
Record
20%
30-119 (149)
Invested
$30.25
Value
$30.22
PnL
-$0.03
Record
35%
669-1223 (1892)
Invested
$4.04
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.96
Record
41%
1218-1750 (2968)
Invested
$7.98
Value
$5.94
PnL
-$2.03
Record
48%
2643-2871 (5514)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.