Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 5.5

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 97¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 15

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$22.6K

Combined PnL

$186.64

Smart Money Entry

61.7¢ → 97¢

+57% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 20 top traders (45%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares14,633

Combined PnL+$5.2K

Under11 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares20,469

Combined PnL$-5.0K

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shaillakhani	Overavg 45.4¢	$4.5K	$9.9K	+$5.4K	7% 16-211 (227)
RN1CTR	Underavg 54.3¢	$6.6K	$3.8K	$-2.9K	54% 6040-5116 (11156)
BU BunCaCham	Overavg 99.9¢	$3.8K	$3.7K	-$110.99	92% 34-3 (37)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 36.3¢	$3.6K	$2.8K	-$815.2	52% 2509-2300 (4809)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 22.9¢	$2.4K	$1.5K	-$703.65	49% 4708-4979 (9687)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 81.5¢	$1.2K	$320.17	-$177.98	48% 3992-4380 (8372)
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9	Overavg 79.8¢	$164.06	$199.44	+$35.38	62% 68-42 (110)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Overavg 95.2¢	$90.74	$92.45	+$1.71	52% 249-233 (482)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 81.8¢	$77.68	$92.15	+$14.47	46% 887-1047 (1934)
dips.	Overavg 81.4¢	$100.31	$90.42	-$9.89	48% 1313-1406 (2719)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 28¢	$19.04	$67.93	+$48.89	46% 3313-3856 (7169)
alpheclabs2CTR	Underavg 53¢	$453.68	$25.68	-$428	45% 372-460 (832)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 54¢	$58.95	$24.89	-$34.06	50% 1145-1157 (2302)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Underavg 48.8¢	$151.15	$21.4	-$129.76	39% 1592-2508 (4100)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 81¢	$16.13	$19.31	+$3.19	49% 1346-1426 (2772)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 74.9¢	$17.22	$0.69	-$16.53	48% 487-523 (1010)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 76¢	$11.17	$0.44	-$10.73	53% 2375-2109 (4484)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 27¢	$2.57	$0.29	-$2.28	38% 1352-2201 (3553)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$0.48	$0.18	-$0.3	36% 648-1177 (1825)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$3.06	$0.04	-$3.03	48% 2573-2776 (5349)

shaillakhani

Over

Invested

$4,500

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$5.4K

Record

16-211 (227)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$6,632.06

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

54%

6040-5116 (11156)

BunCaCham

Over

Invested

$3,823.34

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$110.99

Record

92%

34-3 (37)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$3,582.28

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$815.2

Record

52%

2509-2300 (4809)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$2,359.83

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$703.65

Record

49%

4708-4979 (9687)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,239.56

Value

$320.17

PnL

-$177.98

Record

48%

3992-4380 (8372)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9

Over

Invested

$164.06

Value

$199.44

PnL

+$35.38

Record

62%

68-42 (110)

WagerWizard<$100

Over

Invested

$90.74

Value

$92.45

PnL

+$1.71

Record

52%

249-233 (482)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$77.68

Value

$92.15

PnL

+$14.47

Record

46%

887-1047 (1934)

dips.

Over

Invested

$100.31

Value

$90.42

PnL

-$9.89

Record

48%

1313-1406 (2719)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$19.04

Value

$67.93

PnL

+$48.89

Record

46%

3313-3856 (7169)

alpheclabs2CTR

Under

Invested

$453.68

Value

$25.68

PnL

-$428

Record

45%

372-460 (832)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$58.95

Value

$24.89

PnL

-$34.06

Record

50%

1145-1157 (2302)

topdogbigboiCTR

Under

Invested

$151.15

Value

$21.4

PnL

-$129.76

Record

39%

1592-2508 (4100)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$16.13

Value

$19.31

PnL

+$3.19

Record

49%

1346-1426 (2772)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.22

Value

$0.69

PnL

-$16.53

Record

48%

487-523 (1010)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.17

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$10.73

Record

53%

2375-2109 (4484)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.57

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$2.28

Record

38%

1352-2201 (3553)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.3

Record

36%

648-1177 (1825)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.06

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.03

Record

48%

2573-2776 (5349)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 20 top traders (45%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-22 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 55% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.