Finland vs. San Marino: O/U 1.5

4 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (31%) · Over at 94¢ · $34K held · ended Nov 15

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 31%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.4K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

95.4¢ → 94.4¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$32.4K

Total Shares32,637

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares28,342

Combined PnL+$155.78

Over — 31%Under — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thetesterguy	Overavg 95¢	$27.9K	$29.3K	+$1.5K	88% 21-3 (24)
BU BunCaCham	Overavg 99.9¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$150.76	92% 34-3 (37)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Underavg 5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$128.47	52% 2694-2508 (5202)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Overavg 94¢	$500	$502.12	+$2.13	38% 3837-6288 (10125)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 92.7¢	$383.17	$404.61	+$21.43	52% 2509-2300 (4809)
└ Over leg	Overavg 92.7¢	$208.4	$212.18	+$3.78
└ Under leg	Underavg 5.1¢	$174.78	$192.42	+$17.65
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 5¢	$155.6	$174.25	+$18.65	49% 4708-4979 (9687)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 5¢	$123.22	$138.01	+$14.79	38% 1352-2201 (3553)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 94.4¢	$278.73	$37	+$3.68	48% 3992-4380 (8372)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$27.99	$31.35	+$3.36	59% 3959-2731 (6690)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$18.69	$20.93	+$2.24	43% 561-752 (1313)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$9	$8.4	-$0.6	38% 1372-2254 (3626)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 5.6¢	$2.37	$2.37	+$0	54% 6040-5116 (11156)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 8¢	$0.48	$0.33	-$0.14	53% 2375-2109 (4484)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$11.1	$0.11	-$10.99	48% 2573-2776 (5349)

thetesterguy

Over

Invested

$27,858.1

Value

$29.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

88%

21-3 (24)

BunCaCham

Over

Invested

$2,738.38

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$150.76

Record

92%

34-3 (37)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Under

Invested

$1,070.62

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$128.47

Record

52%

2694-2508 (5202)

xtxpleasecallme

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$502.12

PnL

+$2.13

Record

38%

3837-6288 (10125)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$383.17

Value

$404.61

PnL

+$21.43

Record

52%

2509-2300 (4809)

Both legs:

Over$208.492.7¢+$3.78

Under$174.785.1¢+$17.65

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$155.6

Value

$174.25

PnL

+$18.65

Record

49%

4708-4979 (9687)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$123.22

Value

$138.01

PnL

+$14.79

Record

38%

1352-2201 (3553)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$278.73

Value

$37

PnL

+$3.68

Record

48%

3992-4380 (8372)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.99

Value

$31.35

PnL

+$3.36

Record

59%

3959-2731 (6690)

GC-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.69

Value

$20.93

PnL

+$2.24

Record

43%

561-752 (1313)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

38%

1372-2254 (3626)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.37

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

6040-5116 (11156)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

2375-2109 (4484)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.1

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$10.99

Record

48%

2573-2776 (5349)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 13 top traders (31%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.6%

94.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.