Spread: Finland (-4.5)

3 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Finland (27%) · Finland at 89¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 15

Finland89¢San Marino11¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Finland

Consensus Traders

Finland 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.2K

Combined PnL

$472.88

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 88.5¢

+72% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFinland at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Finland

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Finland89%

San Marino12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Finland3 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares12,030

Combined PnL+$2.6K

San Marino8 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares10,518

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Finland — 27%San Marino — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Finland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSan Marino 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000San Marino 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboi	Finlandavg 54.5¢	$5.2K	$6.5K	+$1.3K	39% 1592-2508 (4100)
FL FlaznorpCTR	San Marinoavg 45.8¢	$3.4K	$2.3K	$-1.1K	49% 4708-4979 (9687)
CH ch27er	Finlandavg 40.4¢	$1.1K	$2.3K	+$1.3K	34% 32-63 (95)
poshposhARB<$100	Finlandavg 52.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$144.18	49% 1346-1426 (2772)
└ Finland leg	Finlandavg 52.2¢	$995.31	$1.3K	+$319.68
└ San Marino leg	San Marinoavg 47.4¢	$506.81	$331.31	-$175.51
MA MadridTimeCTR	San Marinoavg 46.6¢	$531.87	$137.09	-$394.78	38% 1374-2204 (3578)
LI LimousinCTR	San Marinoavg 46.8¢	$433.97	$111.17	-$322.8	38% 1352-2201 (3553)
VE VenusianCTR	San Marinoavg 46.3¢	$229.45	$59.48	-$169.97	38% 1372-2226 (3598)
LI LightParadoxCTR	San Marinoavg 46.6¢	$138.14	$35.56	-$102.59	38% 1372-2254 (3626)
SE sentrio<$100	Finlandavg 34¢	$7.14	$14.48	+$7.35	41% 1195-1699 (2894)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	San Marinoavg 66.6¢	$42.85	$13.3	-$16.01	46% 3313-3856 (7169)
FE ferdinand2CTR	San Marinoavg 46.2¢	$136.5	$10.53	+$13.03	48% 2573-2776 (5349)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	San Marinoavg 44¢	$29.48	$8.04	-$21.44	44% 244-314 (558)

topdogbigboi

Finland

Invested

$5,170.13

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

39%

1592-2508 (4100)

FlaznorpCTR

San Marino

Invested

$3,443.77

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

49%

4708-4979 (9687)

ch27er

Finland

Invested

$1,065.48

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

34%

32-63 (95)

poshposhARB<$100

Finland

Invested

$1,502.12

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$144.18

Record

49%

1346-1426 (2772)

Both legs:

Finland$995.3152.2¢+$319.68

San Marino$506.8147.4¢-$175.51

MadridTimeCTR

San Marino

Invested

$531.87

Value

$137.09

PnL

-$394.78

Record

38%

1374-2204 (3578)

LimousinCTR

San Marino

Invested

$433.97

Value

$111.17

PnL

-$322.8

Record

38%

1352-2201 (3553)

VenusianCTR

San Marino

Invested

$229.45

Value

$59.48

PnL

-$169.97

Record

38%

1372-2226 (3598)

LightParadoxCTR

San Marino

Invested

$138.14

Value

$35.56

PnL

-$102.59

Record

38%

1372-2254 (3626)

sentrio<$100

Finland

Invested

$7.14

Value

$14.48

PnL

+$7.35

Record

41%

1195-1699 (2894)

suntoriCTR<$100

San Marino

Invested

$42.85

Value

$13.3

PnL

-$16.01

Record

46%

3313-3856 (7169)

ferdinand2CTR

San Marino

Invested

$136.5

Value

$10.53

PnL

+$13.03

Record

48%

2573-2776 (5349)

biying88888CTR<$100

San Marino

Invested

$29.48

Value

$8.04

PnL

-$21.44

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

Research grade

NeutralFinland at 89%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Finland

3 of 11 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Finland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrSan Marino 67% · 9

Diverging

Top 1000San Marino 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Finland wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.