Will Finland win on 2026-11-15?

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (22%) · Yes at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Yes96¢No4¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 22%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

$3.39

Smart Money Entry

93.1¢ → 95.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes96%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,653

Combined PnL+$57.29

No7 traders

Total Value$207.39

Total Shares4,193

Combined PnL-$53.9

Yes — 22%No — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AL Alegrandebig	Yesavg 94.2¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$6	65% 26-14 (40)
BL BlackMamba08	Yesavg 74.7¢	$236.17	$184.81	+$63.29	51% 23-22 (45)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 6¢	$154.51	$129.19	-$25.33	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Noavg 10.4¢	$72.98	$35.19	-$37.79	50% 153-153 (306)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 6¢	$16.17	$13.48	-$2.7	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 5.7¢	$16.27	$11.51	+$14.52	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 5.9¢	$10.6	$9	-$1.6	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$7.93	$7.14	-$0.79	42% 995-1363 (2358)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$2.1	$1.89	-$0.21	51% 70-66 (136)

Alegrandebig

Yes

Invested

$3,255.06

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$6

Record

65%

26-14 (40)

BlackMamba08

Yes

Invested

$236.17

Value

$184.81

PnL

+$63.29

Record

51%

23-22 (45)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$154.51

Value

$129.19

PnL

-$25.33

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Invested

$72.98

Value

$35.19

PnL

-$37.79

Record

50%

153-153 (306)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$16.17

Value

$13.48

PnL

-$2.7

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$16.27

Value

$11.51

PnL

+$14.52

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$10.6

Value

PnL

-$1.6

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$7.93

Value

$7.14

PnL

-$0.79

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$0.21

Record

51%

70-66 (136)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.