Exact Score: Finland 2 - 1 San Marino?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 97¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 15

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$14.4K

Combined PnL

$32.84

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 97.2¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$14.0K

Total Shares14,358

Combined PnL+$35.77

Yes5 traders

Total Value$479.68

Total Shares15,725

Combined PnL-$2.93

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Noavg 96.9¢	$5.3K	$5.4K	+$13.78	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 97¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$12.57	37% 1333-2226 (3559)
LI Limousin	Noavg 96.9¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$5.66	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$3.31	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Yesavg 3.1¢	$470.65	$468.08	-$2.57	48% 469-508 (977)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.5¢	$101.74	$102.16	+$0.42	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 97¢	$9.99	$10.02	+$0.03	38% 3804-6225 (10029)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$10	$8.43	-$0.05	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$2.12	$1.96	-$0.16	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$1.05	$0.93	-$0.12	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$0.32	$0.28	-$0.04	41% 1173-1667 (2840)

Venusian

Invested

$5,339.26

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$13.78

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

LightParadox

Invested

$4,129.93

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$12.57

Record

37%

1333-2226 (3559)

Limousin

Invested

$2,193.24

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$5.66

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

MadridTime

Invested

$2,142.87

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$3.31

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Yes

Invested

$470.65

Value

$468.08

PnL

-$2.57

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

SnakeBall

Invested

$101.74

Value

$102.16

PnL

+$0.42

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$0.03

Record

38%

3804-6225 (10029)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$8.43

PnL

-$0.05

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.12

Value

$1.96

PnL

-$0.16

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$0.12

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.04

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.