Will Finland vs. San Marino end in a draw?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 96¢ · $938 held · ends Nov 15

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

Total Value

$937.94

Combined PnL

-$572.29

Smart Money Entry

95.8¢ → 95.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$775.66

Total Shares812

Combined PnL-$453.45

Yes5 traders

Total Value$162.28

Total Shares3,492

Combined PnL-$118.85

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 96¢	$192.6	$191.59	-$1	47% 852-950 (1802)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 96¢	$192.34	$191.33	-$1	49% 877-897 (1774)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 95¢	$171	$171.9	+$0.9	53% 7331-6407 (13738)
AL AlegrandebigCTR	Yesavg 4¢	$120	$135	+$15	67% 29-14 (43)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 96¢	$134.53	$133.83	-$0.7	52% 865-790 (1655)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 96¢	$44.4	$44.17	-$0.23	51% 818-797 (1615)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$160.58	$20.77	-$108.81	47% 3580-3963 (7543)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 95¢	$19.57	$19.67	+$0.1	49% 88-92 (180)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 96¢	$13.68	$13.61	-$0.07	47% 1197-1366 (2563)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 96¢	$1.5K	$9.55	-$451.44	28% 3261-8293 (11554)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$2.85	$2.57	-$0.29	46% 2978-3516 (6494)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100	Yesavg 32.5¢	$18.36	$2.54	-$15.82	52% 187-175 (362)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$10.33	$1.4	-$8.94	38% 3756-6063 (9819)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$192.6

Value

$191.59

PnL

-$1

Record

47%

852-950 (1802)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$192.34

Value

$191.33

PnL

-$1

Record

49%

877-897 (1774)

cigarettes

Invested

$171

Value

$171.9

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

7331-6407 (13738)

AlegrandebigCTR

Yes

Invested

$120

Value

$135

PnL

+$15

Record

67%

29-14 (43)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$134.53

Value

$133.83

PnL

-$0.7

Record

52%

865-790 (1655)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$44.4

Value

$44.17

PnL

-$0.23

Record

51%

818-797 (1615)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$160.58

Value

$20.77

PnL

-$108.81

Record

47%

3580-3963 (7543)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$19.57

Value

$19.67

PnL

+$0.1

Record

49%

88-92 (180)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$13.68

Value

$13.61

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

1197-1366 (2563)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$1,489.17

Value

$9.55

PnL

-$451.44

Record

28%

3261-8293 (11554)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.57

PnL

-$0.29

Record

46%

2978-3516 (6494)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.36

Value

$2.54

PnL

-$15.82

Record

52%

187-175 (362)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.33

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$8.94

Record

38%

3756-6063 (9819)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.