Spain vs. England: O/U 5.5

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 96¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$70.07

Smart Money Entry

92¢ → 96.2¢

+5% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares6,171

Combined PnL+$264.12

Over7 traders

Total Value$152.94

Total Shares3,581

Combined PnL-$194.05

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (17 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 59% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 91.9¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$166.52	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 89.8¢	$848.42	$901.12	+$52.7	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 97.3¢	$743.98	$733.64	-$10.35	77% 398-118 (516)
OD Oddstorm	Underavg 89¢	$407.78	$448.22	+$40.44	35% 143-263 (406)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Underavg 89¢	$100.36	$107.68	+$7.32	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
└ Under leg	Underavg 89¢	$59.23	$63.62	+$4.39
└ Over leg	Overavg 4.1¢	$41.14	$44.07	+$2.93
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 89¢	$87	$93.74	+$6.74	41% 147-213 (360)
MI MinevaJCTR	Overavg 10¢	$990.3	$65.77	-$47.93	31% 57-127 (184)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 89¢	$32.04	$35.28	+$3.24	57% 702-540 (1242)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 90¢	$32.94	$35.1	+$2.16	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 15¢	$148.9	$32.94	-$96.91	34% 127-245 (372)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$73.68	$32.87	-$40.81	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 89.6¢	$23.19	$25.36	+$2.18	47% 507-561 (1068)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 6.1¢	$468.94	$13.41	+$0.55	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 89¢	$8.82	$9.32	+$0.49	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 8.5¢	$8.45	$4.05	-$4.4	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 6¢	$4.08	$2.75	-$1.33	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$4.37	$1.14	-$3.23	46% 3397-3944 (7341)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$3,504.22

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$166.52

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$848.42

Value

$901.12

PnL

+$52.7

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$743.98

Value

$733.64

PnL

-$10.35

Record

77%

398-118 (516)

Oddstorm

Under

Invested

$407.78

Value

$448.22

PnL

+$40.44

Record

35%

143-263 (406)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$100.36

Value

$107.68

PnL

+$7.32

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

Both legs:

Invested

$87

Value

$93.74

PnL

+$6.74

Record

41%

147-213 (360)

MinevaJCTR

Over

Invested

$990.3

Value

$65.77

PnL

-$47.93

Record

31%

57-127 (184)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$32.04

Value

$35.28

PnL

+$3.24

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$32.94

Value

$35.1

PnL

+$2.16

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$148.9

Value

$32.94

PnL

-$96.91

Record

34%

127-245 (372)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$73.68

Value

$32.87

PnL

-$40.81

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$23.19

Value

$25.36

PnL

+$2.18

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$468.94

Value

$13.41

PnL

+$0.55

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$8.82

Value

$9.32

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.45

Value

$4.05

PnL

-$4.4

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.08

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$1.33

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.37

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$3.23

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

59% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (17 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 59% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.