Spain vs. England: Spain O/U 1.5

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (91%) · Under at 56¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 91%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$568.48

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 56¢

+3% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares5,035

Combined PnL+$762.84

Over1 trader

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares3,004

Combined PnL-$194.36

Under — 91%Over — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 67.8¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$66.82	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 43.2¢	$695.36	$1.1K	+$407.02	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 38.7¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$194.36	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 47¢	$470	$690	+$220	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 46.8¢	$53.85	$79.35	+$25.5	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 46¢	$46.92	$70.38	+$23.46	57% 702-540 (1242)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 49.8¢	$43.6	$60.44	+$16.84	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 67¢	$44.58	$44.94	+$0.36	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.2	$3.45	+$1.25	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 46¢	$2.3	$3.45	+$1.15	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 45¢	$0.82	$1.25	+$0.44	35% 669-1223 (1892)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,400.03

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$66.82

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$695.36

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$407.02

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$1,200.44

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$194.36

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$470

Value

$690

PnL

+$220

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$53.85

Value

$79.35

PnL

+$25.5

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$46.92

Value

$70.38

PnL

+$23.46

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$43.6

Value

$60.44

PnL

+$16.84

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$44.58

Value

$44.94

PnL

+$0.36

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$2.2

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$1.25

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$2.3

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$1.15

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$0.82

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.44

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

90% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.