Spain vs. England: England O/U 0.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$314.17

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,434

Combined PnL+$304.46

Under7 traders

Total Value$8.58

Total Shares2,798

Combined PnL-$618.62

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 80.2¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$233.24	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
alpheclabs2	Overavg 62¢	$72.57	$116.99	+$44.42	45% 378-471 (849)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 64¢	$48.92	$75.72	+$26.8	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 21.5¢	$39.03	$7.27	-$31.75	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 22.7¢	$450.43	$0.99	-$449.44	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 20.9¢	$85.52	$0.21	-$85.31	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 23.1¢	$31.33	$0.07	-$31.26	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$17.98	$0.04	-$17.94	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 26.6¢	$2.7	$0.01	-$2.69	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 18¢	$0.22	$0	-$0.22	35% 669-1223 (1892)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,007.4

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$233.24

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

alpheclabs2

Over

Invested

$72.57

Value

$116.99

PnL

+$44.42

Record

45%

378-471 (849)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$48.92

Value

$75.72

PnL

+$26.8

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.03

Value

$7.27

PnL

-$31.75

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$450.43

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$449.44

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85.52

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$85.31

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.33

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$31.26

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.98

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$17.94

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.7

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.69

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.22

Value

PnL

-$0.22

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.