Spread: England (-2.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Spain (50%) · Spain at 93¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

England7¢Spain93¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spain

Consensus Traders

Spain 50%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$124.37

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 92.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpain at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spain

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

England7%

Spain93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spain6 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares3,552

Combined PnL-$11.32

England6 traders

Total Value$406.18

Total Shares5,093

Combined PnL+$135.69

Spain — 50%England — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Spain. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEngland 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Spain 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Spainavg 93.4¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$23.1	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
GO GoalLineGhost	Spainavg 95.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$3.85	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Englandavg 6.2¢	$170.37	$219.37	+$49	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Spainavg 93.6¢	$94.53	$93.27	-$1.26	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
ZZ Zzzz87CTR<$100	Englandavg 4¢	$43.83	$88	+$44.17	57% 116-89 (205)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Englandavg 3.4¢	$22.77	$53.57	+$30.8	47% 507-561 (1068)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Englandavg 4.6¢	$16.15	$26.78	+$10.63	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Spainavg 95¢	$20.52	$19.87	-$0.65	57% 702-540 (1242)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Englandavg 8¢	$16.83	$16.83	-$0	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
38 38791873984189	Spainavg 94.9¢	$635.07	$12.87	+$9.84	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
SE sentrio<$100	Spainavg 92¢	$11.5	$11.5	+$0	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Englandavg 2.7¢	$0.54	$1.63	+$1.09	39% 1657-2634 (4291)

Flaznorp

Spain

Invested

$2,138.29

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$23.1

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

GoalLineGhost

Spain

Invested

$1,118.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$3.85

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

SnakeBallCTR

England

Invested

$170.37

Value

$219.37

PnL

+$49

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

ferdinand2<$100

Spain

Invested

$94.53

Value

$93.27

PnL

-$1.26

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

Zzzz87CTR<$100

England

Invested

$43.83

Value

$88

PnL

+$44.17

Record

57%

116-89 (205)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

England

Invested

$22.77

Value

$53.57

PnL

+$30.8

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

England

Invested

$16.15

Value

$26.78

PnL

+$10.63

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Spain

Invested

$20.52

Value

$19.87

PnL

-$0.65

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

England

Invested

$16.83

Value

$16.83

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

38791873984189

Spain

Invested

$635.07

Value

$12.87

PnL

+$9.84

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

sentrio<$100

Spain

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

England

Invested

$0.54

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$1.09

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

Research grade

NeutralSpain at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spain

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Spain. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrEngland 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Spain 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spain wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.9%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.