Spain vs. England: 1st Half O/U 2.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 15

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$368.61

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares5,767

Combined PnL+$877.6

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.62

Total Shares3,235

Combined PnL-$508.99

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 85.5¢	$2.6K	$3.0K	+$423.95	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
RN1	Underavg 81¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$318.42	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 81.8¢	$375.52	$458.59	+$83.07	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 81.3¢	$91.66	$108.21	+$16.55	57% 702-540 (1242)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 84.5¢	$8.62	$10.19	+$1.57	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 83¢	$8.13	$9.4	+$1.27	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 80.7¢	$332.68	$5.86	+$32.77	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
MI MinevaJCTR	Overavg 15¢	$1.0K	$0.84	-$150.76	31% 57-127 (184)
NO NordhavenCapCTR	Overavg 25¢	$300	$0.6	-$299.4	34% 127-245 (372)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$51.28	$0.13	-$51.15	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 9¢	$6.53	$0.04	-$6.49	35% 669-1223 (1892)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$1.2	$0	-$1.2	38% 1425-2300 (3725)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,621.52

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$423.95

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,719.46

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$318.42

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$375.52

Value

$458.59

PnL

+$83.07

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$91.66

Value

$108.21

PnL

+$16.55

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$8.62

Value

$10.19

PnL

+$1.57

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$8.13

Value

$9.4

PnL

+$1.27

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$332.68

Value

$5.86

PnL

+$32.77

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

MinevaJCTR

Over

Invested

$1,010.1

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$150.76

Record

31%

57-127 (184)

NordhavenCapCTR

Over

Invested

$300

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$299.4

Record

34%

127-245 (372)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$51.28

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$51.15

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.53

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.49

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.2

Value

PnL

-$1.2

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 12 top traders (58%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.