Exact Score: Spain 5 - 0 England?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $890 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$889.75

Combined PnL

-$81.07

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 100¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$873.23

Total Shares875

Combined PnL+$2.2

Yes6 traders

Total Value$16.52

Total Shares5,045

Combined PnL-$83.26

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 99.6¢	$616.7	$618.95	+$2.25	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
VE Venusian	Noavg 99.6¢	$171.25	$171.18	-$0.07	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$59.83	$59.8	-$0.03	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$23.26	$23.3	+$0.04	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$8	-$46.05	20% 30-119 (149)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$26.49	$3.92	-$22.57	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$2.31	$1.85	-$0.46	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$12.35	$1.83	-$10.53	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$4.84	$0.52	-$3.55	53% 1989-1729 (3718)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$0.5	$0.4	-$0.1	41% 1218-1750 (2968)

LightParadox

Invested

$616.7

Value

$618.95

PnL

+$2.25

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

Venusian

Invested

$171.25

Value

$171.18

PnL

-$0.07

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$59.83

Value

$59.8

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$23.26

Value

$23.3

PnL

+$0.04

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

PnL

-$46.05

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.49

Value

$3.92

PnL

-$22.57

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.31

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.46

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.35

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$10.53

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.84

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$3.55

Record

53%

1989-1729 (3718)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.