Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 England?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 96¢ · $546 held · ends Nov 15

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$546.08

Combined PnL

$1.74

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 96¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$508.22

Total Shares530

Combined PnL+$0.17

Yes4 traders

Total Value$37.86

Total Shares946

Combined PnL+$1.58

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.8¢	$241.93	$241.82	-$0.1	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
GC GC-P	Noavg 95.8¢	$187.34	$187.73	+$0.39	42% 548-747 (1295)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$43.34	$43.34	-$0	59% 3949-2729 (6678)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$32.66	$32.52	-$0.14	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 96.1¢	$29.98	$29.95	-$0.03	38% 3808-6231 (10039)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$5.46	$5.37	-$0.09	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.62	$2.4	+$0.78	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$1.46	$2.12	+$0.65	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.54	$0.82	+$0.29	48% 2522-2734 (5256)

SnakeBall

Invested

$241.93

Value

$241.82

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

GC-P

Invested

$187.34

Value

$187.73

PnL

+$0.39

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$43.34

Value

$43.34

PnL

-$0

Record

59%

3949-2729 (6678)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.66

Value

$32.52

PnL

-$0.14

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$29.98

Value

$29.95

PnL

-$0.03

Record

38%

3808-6231 (10039)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.46

Value

$5.37

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.62

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.78

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$2.12

PnL

+$0.65

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.82

PnL

+$0.29

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.1%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.