Exact Score: Spain 2 - 3 England?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 97¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$2.8K
-$10.31
96.9¢ → 97¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$5.16 | 36% 649-1179 (1828) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 97.3¢ | $635.1 | $629.7 | -$5.4 | 47% 1204-1385 (2589) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 97.3¢ | $383.59 | $380.28 | -$3.31 | 59% 3960-2731 (6691) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 96.8¢ | $336.31 | $336.93 | +$0.62 | 43% 561-753 (1314) |
SU suntoriCTR | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $112.45 | $102.64 | -$9.81 | 46% 3336-3878 (7214) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $98.16 | $97.96 | -$0.2 | 38% 1374-2228 (3602) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $418.31 | $80.62 | +$2.3 | 48% 3997-4384 (8381) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $50 | $50.07 | +$0.08 | 38% 3843-6310 (10153) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $0.44 | $0.69 | +$0.25 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
Invested
$1,107.01
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$5.16
Record
36%
649-1179 (1828)
Invested
$635.1
Value
$629.7
PnL
-$5.4
Record
47%
1204-1385 (2589)
Invested
$383.59
Value
$380.28
PnL
-$3.31
Record
59%
3960-2731 (6691)
Invested
$336.31
Value
$336.93
PnL
+$0.62
Record
43%
561-753 (1314)
Invested
$112.45
Value
$102.64
PnL
-$9.81
Record
46%
3336-3878 (7214)
Invested
$98.16
Value
$97.96
PnL
-$0.2
Record
38%
1374-2228 (3602)
Invested
$418.31
Value
$80.62
PnL
+$2.3
Record
48%
3997-4384 (8381)
Invested
$50
Value
$50.07
PnL
+$0.08
Record
38%
3843-6310 (10153)
Invested
$0.44
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.25
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.