Exact Score: Spain 1 - 3 England?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$2.2K
-$294.87
96.7¢ → 95¢
-2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$23.37 | 46% 1234-1428 (2662) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 96.5¢ | $651.2 | $478.66 | -$172.53 | 59% 3971-2747 (6718) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 97¢ | $627.3 | $456.66 | -$170.64 | 43% 577-770 (1347) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $59.94 | $106.91 | +$46.98 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $186.46 | $41.92 | +$20.95 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $30.92 | $37.99 | +$7.07 | 46% 3397-3944 (7341) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $33.72 | $24.59 | -$9.13 | 38% 1425-2300 (3725) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $12.35 | $16.91 | +$4.56 | 38% 3874-6342 (10216) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 70.6¢ | $3.64 | $4.89 | +$1.24 | 39% 1657-2634 (4291) |
Invested
$1,071.23
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$23.37
Record
46%
1234-1428 (2662)
Invested
$651.2
Value
$478.66
PnL
-$172.53
Record
59%
3971-2747 (6718)
Invested
$627.3
Value
$456.66
PnL
-$170.64
Record
43%
577-770 (1347)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$106.91
PnL
+$46.98
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
Invested
$186.46
Value
$41.92
PnL
+$20.95
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
Invested
$30.92
Value
$37.99
PnL
+$7.07
Record
46%
3397-3944 (7341)
Invested
$33.72
Value
$24.59
PnL
-$9.13
Record
38%
1425-2300 (3725)
Invested
$12.35
Value
$16.91
PnL
+$4.56
Record
38%
3874-6342 (10216)
Invested
$3.64
Value
$4.89
PnL
+$1.24
Record
39%
1657-2634 (4291)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.