Will England win on 2026-11-15?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 82¢ · $376 held · ends Nov 15

Yes19¢No81¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$376.01

Combined PnL

-$7.01

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 81.5¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$305.38

Total Shares376

Combined PnL-$1.65

Yes3 traders

Total Value$70.64

Total Shares372

Combined PnL-$5.36

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OD Oddstorm	Noavg 81¢	$201.69	$201.69	+$0	27% 52-141 (193)
fyrskenCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$68.54	$65.13	-$3.4	47% 26-29 (55)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 79¢	$64.93	$42.25	-$2.68	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$35.85	$36.54	+$0.69	59% 3534-2416 (5950)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 80¢	$19.59	$19.84	+$0.24	26% 152-427 (579)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$4.97	$5.06	+$0.09	40% 3250-4894 (8144)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$11.94	$3.04	-$1.57	53% 925-815 (1740)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$2.85	$2.46	-$0.39	47% 1547-1731 (3278)

Oddstorm

Invested

$201.69

Value

$201.69

PnL

+$0

Record

27%

52-141 (193)

fyrskenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.54

Value

$65.13

PnL

-$3.4

Record

47%

26-29 (55)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$64.93

Value

$42.25

PnL

-$2.68

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$35.85

Value

$36.54

PnL

+$0.69

Record

59%

3534-2416 (5950)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$19.59

Value

$19.84

PnL

+$0.24

Record

26%

152-427 (579)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.97

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$0.09

Record

40%

3250-4894 (8144)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.94

Value

$3.04

PnL

-$1.57

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$0.39

Record

47%

1547-1731 (3278)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.