England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 96¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12

Over96¢Under4¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$0.39

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 96.4¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over96%

Under4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares6,940

Combined PnL-$26.43

Under8 traders

Total Value$183.04

Total Shares5,070

Combined PnL+$26.81

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fxwd12345	Overavg 96.8¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	-$24.01	74% 25-9 (34)
0F 0F62	Overavg 97.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$3.45	96% 23-1 (24)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 97¢	$170.85	$171.17	+$0.32	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 3.1¢	$115.55	$136.25	+$20.71	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
SE sentrio	Overavg 96.7¢	$125.32	$126.33	+$1.01	41% 562-807 (1369)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Overavg 96.9¢	$49.95	$49.77	-$0.18	40% 3308-4940 (8248)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 97.1¢	$36.9	$36.78	-$0.11	52% 353-330 (683)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 3.1¢	$16.38	$19.07	+$2.69	35% 7-13 (20)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 3.2¢	$16.57	$18.64	+$2.07	33% 539-1116 (1655)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 3.2¢	$3.02	$3.06	+$0.04	36% 209-370 (579)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 1.7¢	$1.91	$2.86	+$0.95	47% 549-607 (1156)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 3.2¢	$1.32	$1.52	+$0.2	49% 1261-1293 (2554)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 3.2¢	$1.18	$1.33	+$0.15	32% 542-1134 (1676)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$0.31	$0.31	+$0.01	55% 1658-1365 (3023)

fxwd12345

Over

Invested

$5,184.69

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$24.01

Record

74%

25-9 (34)

0F62

Over

Invested

$1,166.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$3.45

Record

96%

23-1 (24)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$170.85

Value

$171.17

PnL

+$0.32

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$115.55

Value

$136.25

PnL

+$20.71

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

sentrio

Over

Invested

$125.32

Value

$126.33

PnL

+$1.01

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Over

Invested

$49.95

Value

$49.77

PnL

-$0.18

Record

40%

3308-4940 (8248)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$36.9

Value

$36.78

PnL

-$0.11

Record

52%

353-330 (683)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.38

Value

$19.07

PnL

+$2.69

Record

35%

7-13 (20)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.57

Value

$18.64

PnL

+$2.07

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.02

Value

$3.06

PnL

+$0.04

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.91

Value

$2.86

PnL

+$0.95

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.32

Value

$1.52

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

1261-1293 (2554)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.18

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.15

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.31

PnL

+$0.01

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.