England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 22%
$1.5K
-$100.82
99.2¢ → 100¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PV pvc975 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0.71 | 99% 175-2 (177) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 89¢ | $164.04 | $101.56 | -$62.48 | 46% 485-564 (1049) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 6¢ | $3 | $3.5 | +$0.5 | 33% 563-1169 (1732) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 5.3¢ | $1.81 | $2.37 | +$0.56 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $24.03 | $0.17 | -$23.86 | 29% 206-510 (716) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $12 | $0.08 | -$11.93 | 48% 590-645 (1235) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 9¢ | $1.8 | $0.01 | -$1.79 | 38% 15-25 (40) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 9¢ | $1.79 | $0.01 | -$1.78 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $0.77 | $0.01 | -$0.76 | 44% 431-541 (972) |
Invested
$1,426.39
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0.71
Record
99%
175-2 (177)
Invested
$164.04
Value
$101.56
PnL
-$62.48
Record
46%
485-564 (1049)
Invested
$3
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
33%
563-1169 (1732)
Invested
$1.81
Value
$2.37
PnL
+$0.56
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
Invested
$24.03
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$23.86
Record
29%
206-510 (716)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$12
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$11.93
Record
48%
590-645 (1235)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.79
Record
38%
15-25 (40)
Invested
$1.79
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$1.78
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Invested
$0.77
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.76
Record
44%
431-541 (972)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.