Spread: England (-1.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold England (57%) · England at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
England
7
England 57%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$53.29
57.9¢ → 57.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralEngland at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on England. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Croatiaavg 42¢ | $584.57 | $646.92 | +$62.34 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
| └ Croatia leg | Croatiaavg 42¢ | $418.19 | $497.84 | +$79.65 | |
| └ England leg | Englandavg 55.8¢ | $166.39 | $149.08 | -$17.31 | |
 fyrsken | Englandavg 58¢ | $521.99 | $449.99 | -$72 | 39% 13-20 (33) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Croatiaavg 42¢ | $63.71 | $75.85 | +$12.14 | 53% 172-153 (325) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Croatiaavg 42¢ | $30.24 | $36 | +$5.76 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Englandavg 56¢ | $33.86 | $34.55 | +$0.69 | 40% 438-657 (1095) |
DO DolphinBaller<$100 | Englandavg 57¢ | $32.91 | $28.87 | -$4.04 | 10% 12-107 (119) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Croatiaavg 42.5¢ | $58.55 | $26.27 | +$4.46 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Englandavg 56¢ | $2.8 | $2.5 | -$0.3 | 49% 973-998 (1971) |
Invested
$584.57
Value
$646.92
PnL
+$62.34
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Both legs:
fyrskenInvested
$521.99
Value
$449.99
PnL
-$72
Record
39%
13-20 (33)
Invested
$63.71
Value
$75.85
PnL
+$12.14
Record
53%
172-153 (325)
Invested
$30.24
Value
$36
PnL
+$5.76
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
Invested
$33.86
Value
$34.55
PnL
+$0.69
Record
40%
438-657 (1095)
Invested
$32.91
Value
$28.87
PnL
-$4.04
Record
10%
12-107 (119)
Invested
$58.55
Value
$26.27
PnL
+$4.46
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
49%
973-998 (1971)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.