Czechia vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 1.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares7,434

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over6 traders

Total Value$6.46

Total Shares839

Combined PnL+$130.99

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 93.1¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$128.49	62% 239-149 (388)
CUTJALENHURTS	Underavg 58¢	$973.48	$1.7K	+$704.09	52% 2600-2442 (5042)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 75.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$92.84	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 59.1¢	$688.31	$1.2K	+$476.02	46% 485-564 (1049)
RN1	Underavg 77.5¢	$709.75	$869.16	+$159.41	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 56.3¢	$100.85	$179	+$78.15	54% 211-181 (392)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 56.4¢	$27.57	$38.12	+$10.55	54% 1032-892 (1924)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 12.2¢	$958.32	$5.48	+$178.66	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 44.3¢	$6.65	$0.6	-$6.05	41% 589-849 (1438)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 5.3¢	$36.6	$0.35	-$36.25	33% 563-1169 (1732)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 25.2¢	$15.28	$0.03	-$15.25	34% 592-1164 (1756)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$34.95	$0	+$10.05	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 15¢	$0.18	$0	-$0.18	35% 221-416 (637)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$1,749.8

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$128.49

Record

62%

239-149 (388)

CUTJALENHURTS

Under

Invested

$973.48

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$704.09

Record

52%

2600-2442 (5042)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,531.88

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$92.84

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$688.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$476.02

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

RN1

Under

Invested

$709.75

Value

$869.16

PnL

+$159.41

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$100.85

Value

$179

PnL

+$78.15

Record

54%

211-181 (392)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$27.57

Value

$38.12

PnL

+$10.55

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$958.32

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$178.66

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.65

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$6.05

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.6

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$36.25

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.28

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$15.25

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.95

Value

PnL

+$10.05

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.18

Value

PnL

-$0.18

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.