Czechia vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5

9 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$254.08

Smart Money Entry

58.8¢ → 100¢

+70% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 21 top traders (43%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,945

Combined PnL+$863.69

Under12 traders

Total Value$294.94

Total Shares2,472

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 21

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 43.6¢	$899.1	$1.3K	+$372.64	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 78¢	$695.03	$890.61	+$195.59	86% 51-8 (59)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 50.5¢	$286.32	$419.1	+$244.53	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
RN1CTR	Underavg 49.1¢	$234.88	$279.55	+$44.66	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 84¢	$175.78	$209.16	+$33.38	71% 15-6 (21)
dips.<$100	Overavg 73.9¢	$66.93	$64.44	-$2.49	45% 563-680 (1243)
poshposh<$100	Overavg 34¢	$28.59	$48.39	+$19.8	48% 590-645 (1235)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 78¢	$18.96	$24.3	+$5.34	34% 207-400 (607)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$51.26	$13.37	-$37.89	53% 6251-5536 (11787)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 75¢	$16.45	$11.01	-$5.44	44% 431-541 (972)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 77¢	$3.82	$4.16	+$0.35	41% 589-849 (1438)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 21.7¢	$1.63	$0.98	-$0.65	54% 1032-892 (1924)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 63.9¢	$600	$0.47	-$599.53	62% 239-149 (388)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 49¢	$275.86	$0.28	-$275.58	33% 585-1187 (1772)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 39¢	$115.62	$0.15	-$115.47	33% 563-1169 (1732)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Underavg 43.3¢	$87.58	$0.07	-$65.1	62% 1371-836 (2207)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 41.6¢	$97.54	$0.03	-$36.5	43% 374-496 (870)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$8.63	$0.02	-$8.61	34% 592-1164 (1756)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 45.2¢	$8.12	$0.01	-$8.12	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 59¢	$10	$0.01	-$9.99	35% 298-548 (846)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$5	$0.01	-$4.99	32% 565-1192 (1757)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$899.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$372.64

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$695.03

Value

$890.61

PnL

+$195.59

Record

86%

51-8 (59)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$286.32

Value

$419.1

PnL

+$244.53

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$234.88

Value

$279.55

PnL

+$44.66

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$175.78

Value

$209.16

PnL

+$33.38

Record

71%

15-6 (21)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$66.93

Value

$64.44

PnL

-$2.49

Record

45%

563-680 (1243)

poshposh<$100

Over

Invested

$28.59

Value

$48.39

PnL

+$19.8

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$18.96

Value

$24.3

PnL

+$5.34

Record

34%

207-400 (607)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.26

Value

$13.37

PnL

-$37.89

Record

53%

6251-5536 (11787)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$16.45

Value

$11.01

PnL

-$5.44

Record

44%

431-541 (972)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$3.82

Value

$4.16

PnL

+$0.35

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.63

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.65

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$600

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$599.53

Record

62%

239-149 (388)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$275.86

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$275.58

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$115.62

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$115.47

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

shiifooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$87.58

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$65.1

Record

62%

1371-836 (2207)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$97.54

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$36.5

Record

43%

374-496 (870)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.63

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$8.61

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.12

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$8.12

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.99

Record

35%

298-548 (846)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.99

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 21 top traders (43%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 58% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 21

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.