Cyprus vs. Montenegro: 1st Half O/U 1.5

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (69%) · Under at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 15

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 69%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 16 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,579

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Over5 traders

Total Value$472.7

Total Shares2,419

Combined PnL-$135.64

Under — 69%Over — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 77.1¢	$4.9K	$6.4K	+$1.5K	65% 349-188 (537)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$361.59	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.2¢	$1.0K	$1.7K	+$655.05
└ Over leg	Overavg 27.7¢	$936	$642.54	-$293.46
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 23.2¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$82.09	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
└ Under leg	Underavg 59.4¢	$623.28	$849.57	+$226.29
└ Over leg	Overavg 23.2¢	$799.46	$655.26	-$144.2
VeryLucky888	Underavg 64¢	$320	$405	+$85	53% 1889-1648 (3537)
VE Venusian	Underavg 38.5¢	$87.56	$227.25	+$139.7	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 26.4¢	$743.74	$201.95	-$169.11	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 14.2¢	$121.54	$164.81	+$43.27	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 33.5¢	$43.84	$130.98	+$87.14	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 49¢	$61.57	$125.59	+$64.02	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 65¢	$68.17	$84.64	+$16.47	59% 747-512 (1259)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 21.3¢	$80.54	$71.93	-$8.61	35% 628-1146 (1774)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 44.8¢	$40.72	$50.11	+$9.39	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 69¢	$31.74	$37.26	+$5.52	56% 651-514 (1165)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$34.8	$33.06	-$1.74	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 65¢	$3.25	$4.05	+$0.8	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 42.9¢	$2.06	$2.06	+$2.06	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 91¢	$2.06	$1.83	-$0.23	83% 962-202 (1164)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$0.4	$0.95	+$0.55	46% 972-1163 (2135)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$4,924.28

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

65%

349-188 (537)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,951.34

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$361.59

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

Under$1,015.3449.2¢+$655.05

Over$93627.7¢-$293.46

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,422.74

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$82.09

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

Both legs:

Under$623.2859.4¢+$226.29

Over$799.4623.2¢-$144.2

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$320

Value

$405

PnL

+$85

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$87.56

Value

$227.25

PnL

+$139.7

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$743.74

Value

$201.95

PnL

-$169.11

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$121.54

Value

$164.81

PnL

+$43.27

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$43.84

Value

$130.98

PnL

+$87.14

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$61.57

Value

$125.59

PnL

+$64.02

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$68.17

Value

$84.64

PnL

+$16.47

Record

59%

747-512 (1259)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$80.54

Value

$71.93

PnL

-$8.61

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$40.72

Value

$50.11

PnL

+$9.39

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.74

Value

$37.26

PnL

+$5.52

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.8

Value

$33.06

PnL

-$1.74

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$3.25

Value

$4.05

PnL

+$0.8

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$2.06

Value

$2.06

PnL

+$2.06

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$2.06

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$0.23

Record

83%

962-202 (1164)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0.55

Record

46%

972-1163 (2135)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 16 top traders (69%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 69% · 13

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.