Exact Score: Cyprus 1 - 3 Montenegro?

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $615 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$615.31

Combined PnL

-$45.15

Smart Money Entry

95.1¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$300.46

Total Shares312

Combined PnL+$3.44

Yes5 traders

Total Value$104.02

Total Shares612

Combined PnL-$48.59

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 62.1¢	$223.67	$210.83	-$12.84	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.1¢	$172.54	$123.99	-$48.55
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.6¢	$51.13	$86.84	+$35.71
NM NM-P	Noavg 95.6¢	$119.83	$119.83	+$0	59% 3949-2729 (6678)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 95.4¢	$92.33	$92.52	+$0.19	42% 548-747 (1295)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 19.6¢	$93.58	$90.52	+$43.66	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$45.28	$48.88	+$3.59	51% 238-233 (471)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$29.22	$28.95	-$0.28	47% 1186-1362 (2548)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.4¢	$6.11	$10.78	+$4.67	44% 337-422 (759)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 95.5¢	$10.36	$10.29	-$0.07	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$0.62	$1.44	+$0.82	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 41.4¢	$1.13	$1.16	+$0.03	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.6¢	$97.9	$0.12	-$97.77	46% 3240-3776 (7016)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$223.67

Value

$210.83

PnL

-$12.84

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

No$172.5462.1¢-$48.55

Yes$51.1332.6¢+$35.71

NM-P

Invested

$119.83

Value

$119.83

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3949-2729 (6678)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$92.33

Value

$92.52

PnL

+$0.19

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.58

Value

$90.52

PnL

+$43.66

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

WagerWizard<$100

Invested

$45.28

Value

$48.88

PnL

+$3.59

Record

51%

238-233 (471)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$29.22

Value

$28.95

PnL

-$0.28

Record

47%

1186-1362 (2548)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.11

Value

$10.78

PnL

+$4.67

Record

44%

337-422 (759)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$10.36

Value

$10.29

PnL

-$0.07

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.62

Value

$1.44

PnL

+$0.82

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.16

PnL

+$0.03

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.9

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$97.77

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.