Will Cyprus vs. Montenegro end in a draw?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 79¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$2.31

Smart Money Entry

74.8¢ → 79¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$625

Total Shares827

Combined PnL+$0.86

Yes8 traders

Total Value$321

Total Shares1,409

Combined PnL+$1.45

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 73¢	$352.32	$366.25	+$13.93	54% 6016-5091 (11107)
└ No leg	Noavg 73¢	$239.16	$250.63	+$11.47
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23¢	$113.16	$115.62	+$2.46
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72¢	$312.52	$312.52	-$0	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 78.2¢	$260.91	$181.79	-$0.53	48% 3952-4304 (8256)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$118.84	$121.54	+$2.7	38% 1317-2168 (3485)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.2¢	$76.2	$81	+$4.8	49% 4635-4903 (9538)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$74.73	$76.43	+$1.7	38% 1341-2205 (3546)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$64.41	$65.34	+$0.93	42% 548-747 (1295)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 78¢	$62.54	$62.94	+$0.4	50% 2840-2873 (5713)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$15.6	$15.6	+$0	37% 1335-2230 (3565)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$15.23	$15.23	+$0	46% 3227-3762 (6989)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Yesavg 55.1¢	$15.44	$7.84	-$7.6	48% 28-30 (58)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.4¢	$2.78	$2.6	-$0.18	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70¢	$2.33	$2.4	+$0.07	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$0.74	$0.77	+$0.03	56% 651-514 (1165)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$352.32

Value

$366.25

PnL

+$13.93

Record

54%

6016-5091 (11107)

Both legs:

No$239.1673¢+$11.47

Yes$113.1623¢+$2.46

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$312.52

Value

$312.52

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

38791873984189

Invested

$260.91

Value

$181.79

PnL

-$0.53

Record

48%

3952-4304 (8256)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$118.84

Value

$121.54

PnL

+$2.7

Record

38%

1317-2168 (3485)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.2

Value

$81

PnL

+$4.8

Record

49%

4635-4903 (9538)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.73

Value

$76.43

PnL

+$1.7

Record

38%

1341-2205 (3546)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$64.41

Value

$65.34

PnL

+$0.93

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$62.54

Value

$62.94

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

2840-2873 (5713)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.6

Value

$15.6

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1335-2230 (3565)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.23

Value

$15.23

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

3227-3762 (6989)

guilttripCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.44

Value

$7.84

PnL

-$7.6

Record

48%

28-30 (58)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.78

Value

$2.6

PnL

-$0.18

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.77

PnL

+$0.03

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.