Will Switzerland win on 2026-11-16?
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (43%) · Yes at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 43%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$19.23
56.3¢ → 56.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DV dv-pm | Yesavg 56¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$12.03 | 46% 45-53 (98) |
 fyrsken | Yesavg 57¢ | $513 | $508.5 | -$4.5 | 49% 66-69 (135) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $327.96 | $339.8 | +$11.84 | 49% 4560-4822 (9382) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Yesavg 60.5¢ | $91.24 | $88.03 | -$3.21 | 56% 635-502 (1137) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 60.5¢ | $63.52 | $59.32 | -$4.2 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 42¢ | $27.72 | $28.71 | +$0.99 | |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $28.5 | $28.25 | -$0.25 | 48% 3854-4218 (8072) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $6.79 | $6.87 | +$0.08 | 59% 3939-2720 (6659) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $5.16 | $5.22 | +$0.06 | 48% 2465-2697 (5162) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 44¢ | $2.48 | $2.45 | -$0.03 | 52% 2230-2031 (4261) |
Invested
$1,347.08
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$12.03
Record
46%
45-53 (98)
fyrskenInvested
$513
Value
$508.5
PnL
-$4.5
Record
49%
66-69 (135)
Invested
$327.96
Value
$339.8
PnL
+$11.84
Record
49%
4560-4822 (9382)
Invested
$91.24
Value
$88.03
PnL
-$3.21
Record
56%
635-502 (1137)
Both legs:
Invested
$28.5
Value
$28.25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
3854-4218 (8072)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$6.87
PnL
+$0.08
Record
59%
3939-2720 (6659)
Invested
$5.16
Value
$5.22
PnL
+$0.06
Record
48%
2465-2697 (5162)
Invested
$2.48
Value
$2.45
PnL
-$0.03
Record
52%
2230-2031 (4261)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.