Will Iceland win on 2026-11-13?
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 53¢ · $934 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 25%
$934.46
$1.01
52.8¢ → 52.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
25% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA GamblingOdyssey | Yesavg 53¢ | $356.41 | $353.05 | -$3.36 | 34% 10-19 (29) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $318.36 | $321.75 | +$3.39 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
 fyrsken | Yesavg 52¢ | $99.27 | $100.22 | +$0.95 | 39% 13-20 (33) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.8¢ | $79.01 | $78.54 | -$0.46 | 23% 38-129 (167) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $43.63 | $43.18 | -$0.45 | 42% 286-400 (686) |
0X 0xbb299ce4867ea634a83a254e24d1ffc5c148947aCTR<$100 | Noavg 46¢ | $25.52 | $26.35 | +$0.83 | — 0-6 (6) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $8.89 | $8.99 | +$0.09 | 55% 729-596 (1325) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.38 | +$0.02 | 40% 438-657 (1095) |
Invested
$356.41
Value
$353.05
PnL
-$3.36
Record
34%
10-19 (29)
Invested
$318.36
Value
$321.75
PnL
+$3.39
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
fyrskenInvested
$99.27
Value
$100.22
PnL
+$0.95
Record
39%
13-20 (33)
Invested
$79.01
Value
$78.54
PnL
-$0.46
Record
23%
38-129 (167)
Invested
$43.63
Value
$43.18
PnL
-$0.45
Record
42%
286-400 (686)
Invested
$25.52
Value
$26.35
PnL
+$0.83
Record
—
0-6 (6)
Invested
$8.89
Value
$8.99
PnL
+$0.09
Record
55%
729-596 (1325)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$0.02
Record
40%
438-657 (1095)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.