Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Albania leading at halftime?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 58%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

63.5¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,508

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$387.02

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$49.52

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 65¢	$1.6K	$908.12	-$680.86	49% 4676-4943 (9619)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 65.3¢	$208.9	$212.8	+$3.9	48% 472-515 (987)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 85.3¢	$234.65	$204.05	-$30.6	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 65¢	$142.59	$139.3	-$3.29	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 99.9¢	$89.93	$89.97	+$0.05	38% 3822-6251 (10073)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Noavg 63¢	$64.38	$64.89	+$0.51	59% 747-512 (1259)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 34.4¢	$63.8	$56.52	-$7.28	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 66¢	$47.52	$45.72	-$1.8	56% 656-516 (1172)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$46.69	$34.9	-$11.79	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 61.4¢	$351.5	$7.99	-$341.64	48% 3968-4327 (8295)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 7¢	$2.1	$2.55	+$0.45	48% 2555-2763 (5318)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$1.47	$1.58	+$0.11	52% 2494-2286 (4780)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,588.98

Value

$908.12

PnL

-$680.86

Record

49%

4676-4943 (9619)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$208.9

Value

$212.8

PnL

+$3.9

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$234.65

Value

$204.05

PnL

-$30.6

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$142.59

Value

$139.3

PnL

-$3.29

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.93

Value

$89.97

PnL

+$0.05

Record

38%

3822-6251 (10073)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Invested

$64.38

Value

$64.89

PnL

+$0.51

Record

59%

747-512 (1259)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.8

Value

$56.52

PnL

-$7.28

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$47.52

Value

$45.72

PnL

-$1.8

Record

56%

656-516 (1172)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.69

Value

$34.9

PnL

-$11.79

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$351.5

Value

$7.99

PnL

-$341.64

Record

48%

3968-4327 (8295)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$2.1

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

2555-2763 (5318)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.47

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$0.11

Record

52%

2494-2286 (4780)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.