Belgium vs. Italy: O/U 7.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 83¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Over17¢Under83¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$66.36

Smart Money Entry

90.1¢ → 83¢

-8% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over17%

Under83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$316.23

Total Shares345

Combined PnL+$5.69

Over5 traders

Total Value$287.06

Total Shares2,387

Combined PnL+$60.67

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 9.2¢	$550.49	$768.49	+$218	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
└ Over leg	Overavg 9.2¢	$305.49	$543.99	+$238.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 98¢	$245	$224.5	-$20.5
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 90.2¢	$158.16	$162.21	+$4.05	77% 398-118 (516)
RN1CTR	Overavg 9.3¢	$140.41	$153.55	+$13.14	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 9.1¢	$66.08	$118.37	+$52.29	35% 669-1223 (1892)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 89.8¢	$106	$107.79	+$1.79	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 89¢	$40.45	$40.82	+$0.36	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 9.4¢	$14.91	$12.73	-$2.19	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 98.4¢	$5.92	$5.41	-$0.52	47% 507-561 (1068)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 20.8¢	$3.08	$1.51	-$1.57	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 21.4¢	$1.9	$0.91	-$0.99	46% 3397-3944 (7341)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$550.49

Value

$768.49

PnL

+$218

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

Both legs:

Over$305.499.2¢+$238.5

Under$24598¢-$20.5

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$158.16

Value

$162.21

PnL

+$4.05

Record

77%

398-118 (516)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$140.41

Value

$153.55

PnL

+$13.14

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$66.08

Value

$118.37

PnL

+$52.29

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$106

Value

$107.79

PnL

+$1.79

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$40.45

Value

$40.82

PnL

+$0.36

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.91

Value

$12.73

PnL

-$2.19

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$5.92

Value

$5.41

PnL

-$0.52

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.08

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$1.57

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.91

PnL

-$0.99

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 83%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.6%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.