Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 7 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Belgium vs. Italy: O/U 5.5

7 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (37%) · Under at 49¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 37%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$992.39

Smart Money Entry

39.7¢ → 49¢

+23% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 19 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,042

Combined PnL+$416.75

Over12 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,128

Combined PnL+$575.65

Under — 37%Over — 63%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (19 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 58% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 32.7¢	$1.5K	$2.1K	+$640.26	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
└ Under leg	Underavg 32.7¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$508.99
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.2¢	$309.64	$440.92	+$131.28
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 65.6¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$60.54	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65.6¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$469.92
└ Over leg	Overavg 10.1¢	$95.96	$505.34	+$409.38
RN1CTR	Underavg 45.7¢	$857.23	$940.87	+$83.65	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 9¢	$162.1	$891.97	+$729.88	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 66.5¢	$1.6K	$558.46	-$195.39	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 37.6¢	$414.63	$545.38	+$130.75	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
0X 0xspaghetti	Overavg 55¢	$500	$459.09	-$40.91	— 4-4 (8)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 31.6¢	$194.22	$304.38	+$110.16	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 30¢	$130.1	$214.49	+$84.39	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 23.5¢	$256.33	$114.85	+$52.18	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
NO NordhavenCap	Overavg 36.8¢	$75.56	$103.62	+$28.06	34% 127-245 (372)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Underavg 50.4¢	$72.41	$74.12	+$1.71	41% 147-213 (360)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 42¢	$24.77	$31.45	+$6.68	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 55¢	$34.04	$31.25	-$2.79	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 29.6¢	$10.11	$15.35	+$5.24	35% 669-1223 (1892)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 49¢	$10.57	$10.68	+$0.11	49% 1197-1222 (2419)
dips.<$100	Overavg 63¢	$6.3	$5.5	-$0.8	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
SH shiifoo<$100	Overavg 64¢	$6.3	$5.41	-$0.89	60% 1475-976 (2451)
SM smithagent<$100	Overavg 63¢	$3.15	$2.75	-$0.4	46% 911-1085 (1996)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$1.4	$2.25	+$0.85	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 63¢	$0.63	$0.55	-$0.08	43% 438-577 (1015)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,470.93

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$640.26

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Both legs:

Under$1,161.2932.7¢+$508.99

Over$309.6437.2¢+$131.28

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,751.34

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$60.54

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

Both legs:

Under$1,655.3865.6¢-$469.92

Over$95.9610.1¢+$409.38

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$857.23

Value

$940.87

PnL

+$83.65

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$162.1

Value

$891.97

PnL

+$729.88

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,555.55

Value

$558.46

PnL

-$195.39

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$414.63

Value

$545.38

PnL

+$130.75

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

0xspaghetti

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$459.09

PnL

-$40.91

Record

—

4-4 (8)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$194.22

Value

$304.38

PnL

+$110.16

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$130.1

Value

$214.49

PnL

+$84.39

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$256.33

Value

$114.85

PnL

+$52.18

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

NordhavenCap

Over

Invested

$75.56

Value

$103.62

PnL

+$28.06

Record

34%

127-245 (372)

fooooolCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$72.41

Value

$74.12

PnL

+$1.71

Record

41%

147-213 (360)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$24.77

Value

$31.45

PnL

+$6.68

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$34.04

Value

$31.25

PnL

-$2.79

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.11

Value

$15.35

PnL

+$5.24

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$10.57

Value

$10.68

PnL

+$0.11

Record

49%

1197-1222 (2419)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.5

PnL

-$0.8

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

shiifoo<$100

Over

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.41

PnL

-$0.89

Record

60%

1475-976 (2451)

smithagent<$100

Over

Invested

$3.15

Value

$2.75

PnL

-$0.4

Record

46%

911-1085 (1996)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.4

Value

$2.25

PnL

+$0.85

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$0.08

Record

43%

438-577 (1015)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 19 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (19 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 58% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.