Spread: Belgium (-2.5)

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Italy (55%) · Italy at 59¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 15

Belgium41¢Italy59¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Italy

Consensus Traders

Italy 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.6K

Combined PnL

$1.1K

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 59.3¢

-36% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralItaly at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Italy

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Belgium41%

Italy59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Belgium5 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,034

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Italy6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,845

Combined PnL-$597.97

Belgium — 45%Italy — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Italyavg 83.1¢	$6.7K	$5.6K	-$526.85	52% 2556-2350 (4906)
└ Italy leg	Italyavg 83.1¢	$5.2K	$3.8K	$-1.7K
└ Belgium leg	Belgiumavg 14.1¢	$626.75	$1.8K	+$1.1K
FL FlaznorpCTR	Belgiumavg 9.5¢	$507.66	$2.1K	+$1.6K	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
NO NordhavenCap	Italyavg 94¢	$2.5K	$1.6K	-$893.33	34% 127-245 (372)
LI LimousinCTR	Belgiumavg 15.2¢	$42.45	$110.04	+$67.59	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
38 38791873984189	Italyavg 62.4¢	$101.64	$50.24	+$9.29	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
MA manoamano<$100	Italyavg 98¢	$49.97	$30.85	-$19.12	54% 45-38 (83)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Belgiumavg 7.3¢	$19.93	$24.53	+$4.6	48% 495-537 (1032)
nigiri99<$100	Italyavg 90¢	$17.1	$15.7	-$1.4	50% 751-741 (1492)
FO foooool<$100	Italyavg 62¢	$12.4	$12.38	-$0.02	41% 141-201 (342)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Belgiumavg 8¢	$10.67	$11.33	+$0.67	39% 1625-2578 (4203)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Belgiumavg 38.8¢	$7.76	$7.9	+$0.14	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Italyavg 61.3¢	$700.11	$7.72	+$306.61	55% 1995-1659 (3654)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Italy

Invested

$6,707.32

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$526.85

Record

52%

2556-2350 (4906)

Both legs:

Italy$5,249.8283.1¢$-1.7K

Belgium$626.7514.1¢+$1.1K

FlaznorpCTR

Belgium

Invested

$507.66

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

NordhavenCap

Italy

Invested

$2,506.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$893.33

Record

34%

127-245 (372)

LimousinCTR

Belgium

Invested

$42.45

Value

$110.04

PnL

+$67.59

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

38791873984189

Italy

Invested

$101.64

Value

$50.24

PnL

+$9.29

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

manoamano<$100

Italy

Invested

$49.97

Value

$30.85

PnL

-$19.12

Record

54%

45-38 (83)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$19.93

Value

$24.53

PnL

+$4.6

Record

48%

495-537 (1032)

nigiri99<$100

Italy

Invested

$17.1

Value

$15.7

PnL

-$1.4

Record

50%

751-741 (1492)

foooool<$100

Italy

Invested

$12.4

Value

$12.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

41%

141-201 (342)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$10.67

Value

$11.33

PnL

+$0.67

Record

39%

1625-2578 (4203)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Belgium

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.14

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Italy

Invested

$700.11

Value

$7.72

PnL

+$306.61

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

Research grade

NeutralItaly at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Italy

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Italy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.4%

59.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.