Italy leading at halftime?

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$181.93

Smart Money Entry

69.8¢ → 98.6¢

+41% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares8,133

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$65.1

Total Shares4,203

Combined PnL$-1.6K

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 66.8¢	$2.0K	$2.9K	+$970.84	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
NO NordhavenCap	Noavg 97.1¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	+$33.93	34% 127-245 (372)
RN1	Noavg 39.4¢	$387.97	$951.34	+$563.38	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
VE Venusian	Noavg 76¢	$649.3	$850.5	+$201.2	38% 1404-2275 (3679)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 76.4¢	$340.96	$444.32	+$103.36	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 73.8¢	$415.81	$295.67	-$120.15	48% 495-537 (1032)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 35.8¢	$137.84	$266.9	+$158.32	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 75¢	$331.43	$232	-$99.43	46% 1216-1411 (2627)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 43.8¢	$26.33	$59.83	+$33.5	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 72¢	$58.08	$57.27	-$0.81	39% 1625-2578 (4203)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 70¢	$47.17	$47.84	+$0.67	46% 1011-1210 (2221)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Yesavg 23.3¢	$709.45	$37.36	+$523.37	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 55.1¢	$2.2K	$17.91	$-2.2K	52% 2556-2350 (4906)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 75¢	$25.71	$13.37	-$12.34	48% 2617-2816 (5433)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 75¢	$12.75	$8.93	-$3.82	53% 1960-1712 (3672)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$4.25	$8.08	+$3.82	50% 751-741 (1492)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 75¢	$6.82	$6.77	-$0.05	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.5	$1.75	+$1.25	3% 12-338 (350)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,973.95

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$970.84

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

NordhavenCap

Invested

$1,564.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$33.93

Record

34%

127-245 (372)

RN1

Invested

$387.97

Value

$951.34

PnL

+$563.38

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

Venusian

Invested

$649.3

Value

$850.5

PnL

+$201.2

Record

38%

1404-2275 (3679)

LightParadox

Invested

$340.96

Value

$444.32

PnL

+$103.36

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$415.81

Value

$295.67

PnL

-$120.15

Record

48%

495-537 (1032)

38791873984189

Invested

$137.84

Value

$266.9

PnL

+$158.32

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

SnakeBall

Invested

$331.43

Value

$232

PnL

-$99.43

Record

46%

1216-1411 (2627)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$26.33

Value

$59.83

PnL

+$33.5

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$58.08

Value

$57.27

PnL

-$0.81

Record

39%

1625-2578 (4203)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$47.17

Value

$47.84

PnL

+$0.67

Record

46%

1011-1210 (2221)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Yes

Invested

$709.45

Value

$37.36

PnL

+$523.37

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,193.03

Value

$17.91

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

52%

2556-2350 (4906)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$25.71

Value

$13.37

PnL

-$12.34

Record

48%

2617-2816 (5433)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$12.75

Value

$8.93

PnL

-$3.82

Record

53%

1960-1712 (3672)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.25

Value

$8.08

PnL

+$3.82

Record

50%

751-741 (1492)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$6.82

Value

$6.77

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

12-338 (350)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.