Belgium vs. Italy: 1st Half O/U 2.5

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (85%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$971.56

Smart Money Entry

73.7¢ → 100¢

+36% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares6,138

Combined PnL-$605.06

Under2 traders

Total Value$470.8

Total Shares1,177

Combined PnL-$366.51

Over — 85%Under — 15%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (13 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9	Overavg 87¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$613.48	62% 71-43 (114)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 69.5¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$312.25	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
└ Under leg	Underavg 69.5¢	$1.3K	$776.57	-$571.91
└ Over leg	Overavg 13.7¢	$76.74	$336.4	+$259.66
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 99¢	$1.3K	$792.01	-$514.8	82% 110-24 (134)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 29¢	$290	$600	+$310	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
RN1CTR	Underavg 72.5¢	$817.4	$450.89	-$366.51	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
LO lonmi2511	Overavg 15¢	$42.87	$285.5	+$242.64	59% 762-531 (1293)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 88.2¢	$370.4	$252	-$118.4	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
wesolyjasiu	Overavg 99.9¢	$295.05	$177.21	-$117.84	100% 60-0 (60)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 15¢	$25.38	$169.04	+$143.66	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 38.2¢	$288.57	$122.3	+$83.08	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
dips.	Overavg 93¢	$132.99	$85.8	-$47.19	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 15¢	$4.65	$30.97	+$26.32	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$19.91	$19.91	+$0	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 11¢	$0.22	$1.18	+$0.97	45% 1018-1224 (2242)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9

Over

Invested

$1,976.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$613.48

Record

62%

71-43 (114)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,425.22

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$312.25

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Both legs:

Under$1,348.4869.5¢-$571.91

Over$76.7413.7¢+$259.66

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$1,306.81

Value

$792.01

PnL

-$514.8

Record

82%

110-24 (134)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$290

Value

$600

PnL

+$310

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$817.4

Value

$450.89

PnL

-$366.51

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

lonmi2511

Over

Invested

$42.87

Value

$285.5

PnL

+$242.64

Record

59%

762-531 (1293)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$370.4

Value

$252

PnL

-$118.4

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

wesolyjasiu

Over

Invested

$295.05

Value

$177.21

PnL

-$117.84

Record

100%

60-0 (60)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$25.38

Value

$169.04

PnL

+$143.66

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$288.57

Value

$122.3

PnL

+$83.08

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

dips.

Over

Invested

$132.99

Value

$85.8

PnL

-$47.19

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$4.65

Value

$30.97

PnL

+$26.32

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.91

Value

$19.91

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$0.22

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$0.97

Record

45%

1018-1224 (2242)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 13 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (13 on Over) disagree here.

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.