Belgium vs. Italy: 1st Half O/U 1.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 70¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$13.4

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 69.5¢

+17% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,271

Combined PnL+$8.55

Over4 traders

Total Value$186.63

Total Shares486

Combined PnL+$4.85

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lonmi2511	Underavg 58.6¢	$985.95	$992.51	+$6.55	59% 756-520 (1276)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 38¢	$481.44	$464.63	+$10.81	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$251.33	$287.71	+$34.01
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.9¢	$200.12	$176.93	-$23.2
NM NM-P	Underavg 60¢	$369.23	$363.07	-$6.15	59% 3966-2735 (6701)
GC GC-P	Underavg 60¢	$294.23	$289.32	-$4.9	43% 567-758 (1325)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 59.3¢	$370.51	$250.83	+$14.79	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 33.5¢	$96.21	$96.31	+$0.1	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 60.2¢	$79.44	$77.88	-$1.56	57% 691-531 (1222)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$49.52	$52.54	+$3.02	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$30.35	$31.63	+$1.28	48% 2617-2816 (5433)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$5.7	$6.15	+$0.45	41% 1200-1727 (2927)
RN1<$100	Underavg 65¢	$1.86	$1.69	-$0.17	54% 6080-5160 (11240)

lonmi2511

Under

Invested

$985.95

Value

$992.51

PnL

+$6.55

Record

59%

756-520 (1276)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$481.44

Value

$464.63

PnL

+$10.81

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

Both legs:

Over$251.3338¢+$34.01

Under$200.1263.9¢-$23.2

NM-P

Under

Invested

$369.23

Value

$363.07

PnL

-$6.15

Record

59%

3966-2735 (6701)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$294.23

Value

$289.32

PnL

-$4.9

Record

43%

567-758 (1325)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$370.51

Value

$250.83

PnL

+$14.79

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$96.21

Value

$96.31

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$79.44

Value

$77.88

PnL

-$1.56

Record

57%

691-531 (1222)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$49.52

Value

$52.54

PnL

+$3.02

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.35

Value

$31.63

PnL

+$1.28

Record

48%

2617-2816 (5433)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.7

Value

$6.15

PnL

+$0.45

Record

41%

1200-1727 (2927)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.69

PnL

-$0.17

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.