Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Italy?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$2.99

Smart Money Entry

98.3¢ → 99.1¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares2,971

Combined PnL+$19.51

Yes6 traders

Total Value$27.34

Total Shares1,631

Combined PnL-$16.53

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 98.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$6.71	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98¢	$539	$545.05	+$6.05	46% 1216-1411 (2627)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 98.4¢	$496.92	$500.46	+$3.53	38% 3857-6319 (10176)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 98.3¢	$491.5	$492	+$0.5	35% 659-1202 (1861)
GC GC-P	Noavg 98¢	$147	$148.65	+$1.65	43% 567-758 (1325)
NM NM-P	Noavg 98.2¢	$106.8	$107.59	+$0.79	59% 3966-2735 (6701)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 98.4¢	$39.36	$39.64	+$0.28	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$105.78	$8.98	-$3.6	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$6.97	-$9.33	20% 30-119 (149)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$5.09	$5.43	+$0.34	48% 495-537 (1032)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$8.4	$4.73	-$3.68	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.33	$1.14	-$0.19	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.16	$0.1	-$0.07	40% 2687-4008 (6695)

LightParadox

Invested

$1,101.23

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$6.71

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

SnakeBall

Invested

$539

Value

$545.05

PnL

+$6.05

Record

46%

1216-1411 (2627)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$496.92

Value

$500.46

PnL

+$3.53

Record

38%

3857-6319 (10176)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$491.5

Value

$492

PnL

+$0.5

Record

35%

659-1202 (1861)

GC-P

Invested

$147

Value

$148.65

PnL

+$1.65

Record

43%

567-758 (1325)

NM-P

Invested

$106.8

Value

$107.59

PnL

+$0.79

Record

59%

3966-2735 (6701)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$39.36

Value

$39.64

PnL

+$0.28

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$105.78

Value

$8.98

PnL

-$3.6

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$6.97

PnL

-$9.33

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.09

Value

$5.43

PnL

+$0.34

Record

48%

495-537 (1032)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.4

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$3.68

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.14

PnL

-$0.19

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$0.07

Record

40%

2687-4008 (6695)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

54% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.