Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Italy?

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 98¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$51.19

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 98¢

+2% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares4,916

Combined PnL+$53.09

Yes5 traders

Total Value$21.46

Total Shares620

Combined PnL-$1.9

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.06	46% 1216-1411 (2627)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 96.5¢	$965	$971	+$6	55% 1995-1659 (3654)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 95.8¢	$958	$809.88	+$13.17	53% 1960-1712 (3672)
RN1	Noavg 95.7¢	$754.31	$765.35	+$11.03	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
LI Limousin	Noavg 97.2¢	$229.26	$232.04	+$2.78	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97.1¢	$208.55	$211.23	+$2.68	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 96.9¢	$155.03	$157.32	+$2.29	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$79.44	$80	+$0.56	59% 3966-2735 (6701)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$65.31	$65.82	+$0.51	43% 567-758 (1325)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 2.8¢	$317.73	$10.67	+$2.52	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.5¢	$10.13	$8.32	-$1.8	44% 341-427 (768)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$2.84	$1.22	-$1.62	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$2.08	$1.07	-$1.01	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.16	$0.17	+$0.01	40% 2687-4008 (6695)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,478.93

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.06

Record

46%

1216-1411 (2627)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$965

Value

$971

PnL

+$6

Record

55%

1995-1659 (3654)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$958

Value

$809.88

PnL

+$13.17

Record

53%

1960-1712 (3672)

RN1

Invested

$754.31

Value

$765.35

PnL

+$11.03

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

Limousin

Invested

$229.26

Value

$232.04

PnL

+$2.78

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

MadridTime

Invested

$208.55

Value

$211.23

PnL

+$2.68

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

LightParadox

Invested

$155.03

Value

$157.32

PnL

+$2.29

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$79.44

Value

$80

PnL

+$0.56

Record

59%

3966-2735 (6701)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$65.31

Value

$65.82

PnL

+$0.51

Record

43%

567-758 (1325)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$317.73

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$2.52

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.13

Value

$8.32

PnL

-$1.8

Record

44%

341-427 (768)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.84

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$1.62

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.08

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$1.01

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0.01

Record

40%

2687-4008 (6695)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+15 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.