Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Italy?

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$114.8

Smart Money Entry

88.5¢ → 100¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$931.23

Total Shares932

Combined PnL+$99.99

Yes6 traders

Total Value$102.6

Total Shares1,976

Combined PnL+$14.82

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 88¢	$415.14	$470.58	+$55.44	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
GC GC-P	Noavg 88¢	$279.15	$310.83	+$31.68	43% 577-770 (1347)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Noavg 89¢	$89	$99.95	+$10.95	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$60	+$32.97	20% 30-119 (149)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 97¢	$43.55	$44.87	+$1.32	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$28.71	$38.64	+$19.93	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 88¢	$4.4	$5	+$0.6	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$6.84	$3.42	-$3.42	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.16	$0.36	+$0.2	40% 2689-4008 (6697)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$23.52	$0.13	-$23.39	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.2¢	$11.53	$0.05	-$11.48	48% 4819-5125 (9944)

NM-P

Invested

$415.14

Value

$470.58

PnL

+$55.44

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

GC-P

Invested

$279.15

Value

$310.83

PnL

+$31.68

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Invested

$89

Value

$99.95

PnL

+$10.95

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$60

PnL

+$32.97

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$43.55

Value

$44.87

PnL

+$1.32

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.71

Value

$38.64

PnL

+$19.93

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.84

Value

$3.42

PnL

-$3.42

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.36

PnL

+$0.2

Record

40%

2689-4008 (6697)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.52

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$23.39

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.53

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$11.48

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+16 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 55% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.