Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Italy?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 100¢ · $249 held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

Total Value

$249.47

Combined PnL

-$24.54

Smart Money Entry

94.4¢ → 100¢

+6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$191.13

Total Shares191

Combined PnL-$6.15

Yes7 traders

Total Value$58.34

Total Shares2,159

Combined PnL-$18.39

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-56 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO Rocky31	Noavg 94.9¢	$132.8	$139.93	+$7.13	47% 130-145 (275)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$50	+$22.97	20% 30-119 (149)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 93¢	$46.9	$32.31	-$14.59	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 93¢	$17.58	$18.89	+$1.31	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$79.91	$5.65	-$4.26	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$2.85	$2.04	-$0.81	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.16	$0.3	+$0.14	40% 2689-4008 (6697)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$27.04	$0.26	-$26.79	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$5.91	$0.06	-$5.85	55% 1999-1665 (3664)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$3.83	$0.04	-$3.79	43% 577-770 (1347)

Rocky31

Invested

$132.8

Value

$139.93

PnL

+$7.13

Record

47%

130-145 (275)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$50

PnL

+$22.97

Record

20%

30-119 (149)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$46.9

Value

$32.31

PnL

-$14.59

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$17.58

Value

$18.89

PnL

+$1.31

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.91

Value

$5.65

PnL

-$4.26

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$0.81

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.14

Record

40%

2689-4008 (6697)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.04

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$26.79

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.91

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.85

Record

55%

1999-1665 (3664)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.83

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.79

Record

43%

577-770 (1347)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-56 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.