Austria vs. Republic of Ireland: 1st Half O/U 0.5

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (92%) · Under at 65¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 92%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$109.56

Smart Money Entry

36.1¢ → 64.5¢

+78% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,978

Combined PnL+$109.56

Over1 trader

Total Value$3.4

Total Shares5

Combined PnL-$0

Under — 92%Over — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 37.3¢	$420.17	$571.4	+$151.23	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
RN1	Underavg 35.9¢	$203.4	$169.86	-$33.54	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 30¢	$150.43	$150.43	+$0	47% 936-1037 (1973)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 49.9¢	$80.72	$81.67	+$0.95	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 37¢	$31.35	$25.42	-$5.93	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 38.9¢	$103.86	$11.72	-$5.58	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 36.7¢	$6.05	$8.5	+$2.45	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 31¢	$8.73	$8.45	-$0.28	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
DA dashattacker<$100	Underavg 80¢	$5.4	$5.47	+$0.07	64% 313-173 (486)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 40¢	$3.33	$3.54	+$0.21	36% 481-851 (1332)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.4	-$0	55% 502-403 (905)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 30¢	$1.55	$1.55	+$0	53% 1815-1613 (3428)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$420.17

Value

$571.4

PnL

+$151.23

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

RN1

Under

Invested

$203.4

Value

$169.86

PnL

-$33.54

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$150.43

Value

$150.43

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$80.72

Value

$81.67

PnL

+$0.95

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$31.35

Value

$25.42

PnL

-$5.93

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$103.86

Value

$11.72

PnL

-$5.58

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$6.05

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$2.45

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$8.73

Value

$8.45

PnL

-$0.28

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

dashattacker<$100

Under

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.47

PnL

+$0.07

Record

64%

313-173 (486)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$3.33

Value

$3.54

PnL

+$0.21

Record

36%

481-851 (1332)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.4

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.