Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Republic of Ireland?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 4.8¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 56%
$1.1K
-$310.19
5.7¢ → 4.8¢
-17% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 5.7¢ | $824.41 | $500.1 | -$324.3 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $1.0K | $412.9 | +$16.84 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 94.4¢ | $114.81 | $115.17 | +$0.36 | 39% 3675-5843 (9518) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $50.1 | $50.23 | +$0.13 | 38% 1014-1686 (2700) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $11.01 | $11.21 | +$0.2 | 53% 1811-1610 (3421) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.9¢ | $12.24 | $8.98 | -$3.26 | 48% 2157-2304 (4461) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $6.29 | $5.92 | -$0.37 | 42% 1030-1415 (2445) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $4.36 | $4.52 | +$0.15 | 37% 367-618 (985) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $2.78 | $2.84 | +$0.06 | 59% 3775-2600 (6375) |
Invested
$824.41
Value
$500.1
PnL
-$324.3
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Invested
$1,005.9
Value
$412.9
PnL
+$16.84
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$114.81
Value
$115.17
PnL
+$0.36
Record
39%
3675-5843 (9518)
Invested
$50.1
Value
$50.23
PnL
+$0.13
Record
38%
1014-1686 (2700)
Invested
$11.01
Value
$11.21
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
1811-1610 (3421)
Invested
$12.24
Value
$8.98
PnL
-$3.26
Record
48%
2157-2304 (4461)
Invested
$6.29
Value
$5.92
PnL
-$0.37
Record
42%
1030-1415 (2445)
Invested
$4.36
Value
$4.52
PnL
+$0.15
Record
37%
367-618 (985)
Invested
$2.78
Value
$2.84
PnL
+$0.06
Record
59%
3775-2600 (6375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.