Armenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $122 held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$122.22

Combined PnL

-$6.71

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$66.07

Total Shares64

Combined PnL+$0.76

Under4 traders

Total Value$56.15

Total Shares702

Combined PnL-$7.48

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 90¢	$22.54	$25.01	+$2.48	55% 1645-1352 (2997)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 9.4¢	$27.83	$23.56	-$4.26	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$24.33	$21.63	-$2.7	40% 78-117 (195)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 98¢	$18.62	$17.48	-$1.14	86% 70-11 (81)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 90¢	$13.94	$14.18	+$0.23	54% 994-856 (1850)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 8.6¢	$16.51	$10.15	-$0.41	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
PV pvc975<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$10.21	$9.4	-$0.81	99% 147-2 (149)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$0.9	$0.8	-$0.1	41% 552-797 (1349)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$22.54

Value

$25.01

PnL

+$2.48

Record

55%

1645-1352 (2997)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$27.83

Value

$23.56

PnL

-$4.26

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.33

Value

$21.63

PnL

-$2.7

Record

40%

78-117 (195)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$18.62

Value

$17.48

PnL

-$1.14

Record

86%

70-11 (81)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$13.94

Value

$14.18

PnL

+$0.23

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.51

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$0.41

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

pvc975<$100

Over

Invested

$10.21

Value

$9.4

PnL

-$0.81

Record

99%

147-2 (149)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.