Armenia vs. Cyprus: Draw at halftime?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $417 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$417.05
$14.01
79.2¢ → 100¢
+26% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 81.7¢ | $347.89 | $353.82 | +$5.93 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $16.82 | $26.6 | +$9.78 | 55% 1645-1352 (2997) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 80.7¢ | $13.15 | $14.41 | +$1.26 | 49% 1241-1273 (2514) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $5.82 | $9.2 | +$3.38 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $11.89 | $6.89 | -$5.01 | 47% 532-590 (1122) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $4.4 | $4.4 | +$0 | 40% 3295-4922 (8217) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $2.53 | $1.43 | -$1.1 | 44% 389-495 (884) |
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $0.55 | $0.31 | -$0.24 | 27% 182-490 (672) |
Invested
$347.89
Value
$353.82
PnL
+$5.93
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$16.82
Value
$26.6
PnL
+$9.78
Record
55%
1645-1352 (2997)
Invested
$13.15
Value
$14.41
PnL
+$1.26
Record
49%
1241-1273 (2514)
Invested
$5.82
Value
$9.2
PnL
+$3.38
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$11.89
Value
$6.89
PnL
-$5.01
Record
47%
532-590 (1122)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.4
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
3295-4922 (8217)
Invested
$2.53
Value
$1.43
PnL
-$1.1
Record
44%
389-495 (884)
Invested
$0.55
Value
$0.31
PnL
-$0.24
Record
27%
182-490 (672)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.