Armenia vs. Cyprus: 1st Half O/U 0.5

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Over (69%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 69%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$445.93

Smart Money Entry

67.3¢ → 100¢

+48% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,521

Combined PnL+$542.51

Under4 traders

Total Value$81.52

Total Shares481

Combined PnL-$96.58

Over — 69%Under — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 76¢	$342	$450.03	+$108.03	99% 244-3 (247)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 62.9¢	$281.13	$433.44	+$152.31	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 61.8¢	$401.78	$272.84	+$139.56	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 65¢	$152.1	$233.77	+$81.67	44% 165-210 (375)
dips.	Overavg 61¢	$207.6	$84.96	+$52.36	45% 537-651 (1188)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$39.78	$41.99	+$2.21	33% 553-1135 (1688)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$60.6	$39.42	-$21.18	47% 532-590 (1122)
VA Vampiro1<$100	Overavg 88.9¢	$21.04	$23.67	+$2.62	86% 70-11 (81)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 62¢	$6.82	$10.99	+$4.17	44% 389-495 (884)
PV pvc975<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$5	$5	+$0	99% 147-2 (149)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 64¢	$3.18	$4.97	+$1.79	52% 187-174 (361)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$77	$0.1	-$76.89	62% 1364-828 (2192)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$0.72	$0	-$0.72	53% 6191-5476 (11667)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$342

Value

$450.03

PnL

+$108.03

Record

99%

244-3 (247)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$281.13

Value

$433.44

PnL

+$152.31

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$401.78

Value

$272.84

PnL

+$139.56

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$152.1

Value

$233.77

PnL

+$81.67

Record

44%

165-210 (375)

dips.

Over

Invested

$207.6

Value

$84.96

PnL

+$52.36

Record

45%

537-651 (1188)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$39.78

Value

$41.99

PnL

+$2.21

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.6

Value

$39.42

PnL

-$21.18

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

Vampiro1<$100

Over

Invested

$21.04

Value

$23.67

PnL

+$2.62

Record

86%

70-11 (81)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$6.82

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$4.17

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

pvc975<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

99%

147-2 (149)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$3.18

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$1.79

Record

52%

187-174 (361)

shiifooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$77

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$76.89

Record

62%

1364-828 (2192)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.72

Value

PnL

-$0.72

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Over 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.