Will Armenia vs. Cyprus end in a draw?

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$78.11

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 75.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$429.02

Total Shares545

Combined PnL+$9.53

Yes7 traders

Total Value$127.71

Total Shares503

Combined PnL-$87.63

No — 53%Yes — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 68¢	$923.06	$943.62	+$20.57	59% 3535-2417 (5952)
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$645.21	$730.61	+$85.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30¢	$277.85	$213.01	-$64.83
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 68¢	$590.94	$582.35	-$8.59	26% 153-428 (581)
└ No leg	Noavg 68¢	$346.17	$391.99	+$45.82
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.6¢	$244.76	$190.36	-$54.4
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$512.33	$418.6	+$29.47	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.7¢	$302.25	$312.84	+$10.59
└ No leg	Noavg 70¢	$98.07	$105.76	+$18.88
PT PT-S7	Noavg 76.7¢	$355.17	$297.07	+$3.33	17% 38-180 (218)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$712.94	$77.04	-$83.75	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 75¢	$36.59	$37.56	+$0.98	56% 3902-3070 (6972)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 69¢	$19.87	$22.17	+$2.3	49% 19-20 (39)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 75¢	$18.39	$19.48	+$1.09	51% 2075-1993 (4068)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 29.6¢	$22.98	$17.89	-$5.09	54% 994-856 (1850)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 75¢	$15.54	$15.95	+$0.41	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 77.2¢	$26.4	$15.35	-$0.99	40% 3295-4922 (8217)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 71¢	$39.93	$11.42	+$1.49	37% 37-62 (99)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 23.9¢	$25.99	$10.58	-$0.41	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 70¢	$9.1	$10.01	+$0.91	43% 348-470 (818)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.6¢	$8.62	$9.79	+$1.17	22% 178-637 (815)
0X 0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$7.95	$8.71	+$0.76	— 2-1 (3)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.52	$2.57	+$0.05	33% 558-1111 (1669)
0X 0x63C4dCbb199c5eCA30c8a002fF238aAd5DCE4671-1779125900020CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$1.5	$1.15	-$0.35	— 5-1 (6)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$923.06

Value

$943.62

PnL

+$20.57

Record

59%

3535-2417 (5952)

Both legs:

No$645.2168¢+$85.4

Yes$277.8530¢-$64.83

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$590.94

Value

$582.35

PnL

-$8.59

Record

26%

153-428 (581)

Both legs:

No$346.1768¢+$45.82

Yes$244.7629.6¢-$54.4

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$512.33

Value

$418.6

PnL

+$29.47

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Both legs:

Yes$302.2523.7¢+$10.59

No$98.0770¢+$18.88

PT-S7

Invested

$355.17

Value

$297.07

PnL

+$3.33

Record

17%

38-180 (218)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$712.94

Value

$77.04

PnL

-$83.75

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$36.59

Value

$37.56

PnL

+$0.98

Record

56%

3902-3070 (6972)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$19.87

Value

$22.17

PnL

+$2.3

Record

49%

19-20 (39)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$18.39

Value

$19.48

PnL

+$1.09

Record

51%

2075-1993 (4068)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.98

Value

$17.89

PnL

-$5.09

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.54

Value

$15.95

PnL

+$0.41

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$26.4

Value

$15.35

PnL

-$0.99

Record

40%

3295-4922 (8217)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$39.93

Value

$11.42

PnL

+$1.49

Record

37%

37-62 (99)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.99

Value

$10.58

PnL

-$0.41

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

$10.01

PnL

+$0.91

Record

43%

348-470 (818)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.62

Value

$9.79

PnL

+$1.17

Record

22%

178-637 (815)

0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.95

Value

$8.71

PnL

+$0.76

Record

—

2-1 (3)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.52

Value

$2.57

PnL

+$0.05

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

0x63C4dCbb199c5eCA30c8a002fF238aAd5DCE4671-1779125900020CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.15

PnL

-$0.35

Record

—

5-1 (6)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+12 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.